相关论文: Marked Cox Models for IBNR Claims Count: Continuou…

Incurred but not reported (IBNR) loss reserving is an important issue for Property & Casualty (P&C) insurers. The modeling of the claim arrival process, especially its temporal dependence, has not been closely examined in many of the…

There are growing concerns for reserves estimation of incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims in actuarial sciences. In this paper, we propose a copula-based dependency model to capture the relationship between two main IBNR reserve…

Analysis of sequential event data has been recognized as one of the essential tools in data modeling and analysis field. In this paper, after the examination of its technical requirements and issues to model complex but practical situation,…

We introduce new approaches for forecasting IBNR (Incurred But Not Reported) frequencies by leveraging individual claims data, which includes accident date, reporting delay, and possibly additional features for every reported claim. A key…

Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…

This paper introduces a unified micro-level stochastic framework for the joint modeling of loss reserves (RBNS), incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves, and unearned premium risk under dependence, inflation, and discounting. The proposed…

The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) is a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the classical Hidden Markov Model for learning from (spatio-)temporal data. A sticky HDP-HMM has been proposed to strengthen…

There is an increase in interest to model driving maneuver patterns via the automatic unsupervised clustering of naturalistic sequential kinematic driving data. The patterns learned are often used in transportation research areas such as…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

We derive a robust update rule for the online infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) for when the streaming data contains outliers and the model is misspecified. Leveraging recent advances in generalised Bayesian inference, we define…

Labeling of sequential data is a prevalent meta-problem for a wide range of real world applications. While the first-order Hidden Markov Models (HMM) provides a fundamental approach for unsupervised sequential labeling, the basic model does…

We propose the segmented iHMM (siHMM), a hierarchical infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) that supports a simple, efficient inference scheme. The siHMM is well suited to segmentation problems, where the goal is to identify points at which a…

The appropriate estimation of incurred but not reported (IBNR) reserves is traditionally one of the most important task of actuaries working in casualty and property insurance. As certain claims are reported many years after their…

In modern industries, fault diagnosis has been widely applied with the goal of realizing predictive maintenance. The key issue for the fault diagnosis system is to extract representative characteristics of the fault signal and then…

We present a model-based approach to learning robust runtime monitors for autonomous systems. Runtime monitors play a crucial role in raising the level of assurance by observing system behavior and predicting potential safety violations. In…

A popular way to estimate the parameters of a hidden Markov model (HMM) is direct numerical maximization (DNM) of the (log-)likelihood function. The advantages of employing the TMB (Kristensen et al., 2016) framework in R for this purpose…

Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is often regarded as the dynamical model of choice in many fields and applications. It is also at the heart of most state-of-the-art speech recognition systems since the 70's. However, from Gaussian mixture models…

Modeling insurance claim amounts and classifying claims into different risk levels are critical yet challenging tasks. Traditional predictive models for insurance claims often overlook the valuable information embedded in claim…

Point and interval estimation of future disability inception and recovery rates are predominantly carried out by combining generalized linear models (GLM) with time series forecasting techniques into a two-step method involving parameter…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are…