相关论文: Identification of distributions for risks based on…

We present new algorithms for estimating and testing \emph{collision probability}, a fundamental measure of the spread of a discrete distribution that is widely used in many scientific fields. We describe an algorithm that satisfies…

Organisms and algorithms learn probability distributions from previous observations, either over evolutionary time or on the fly. In the absence of regularities, estimating the underlying distribution from data would require observing each…

For probabilistic programs, it is usually not possible to automatically derive exact information about their properties, such as the distribution of states at a given program point. Instead, one can attempt to derive approximations, such as…

Integer sequences where each element is determined by a previous randomly chosen element are investigated analytically. In particular, the random geometric series x_n=2x_p with 0<=p<=n-1 is studied. At large n, the moments grow…

Robust estimators, like the median of a point set, are important for data analysis in the presence of outliers. We study robust estimators for locationally uncertain points with discrete distributions. That is, each point in a data set has…

Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

We investigate the problem of jointly testing two hypotheses and estimating a random parameter based on data that is observed sequentially by sensors in a distributed network. In particular, we assume the data to be drawn from a Gaussian…

The main result of the paper is the following. Let a non-degenerate distribution have finite moments $\mu_k$ of all orders $k=0,1,2,\ldots$. Then the sequence $\{\mu_k/k!, \; k=0,1,2,\ldots\}$ either contains infinitely many different terms…

We introduce a stochastic contextual bandit model where at each time step the environment chooses a distribution over a context set and samples the context from this distribution. The learner observes only the context distribution while the…

In this paper, we address the risk estimation problem where one aims at estimating the probability of violation of safety constraints for a robot in the presence of bounded uncertainties with arbitrary probability distributions. In this…

A class of probability distributions is characterized via equalities in law between two order statistics shifted by independent exponential variables. An explicit formula for the quintile function of the identified family of distributions…

In this article we study the distribution of the number of points of a simple random walk, visited a given number of times (the k-multiple point range). In a previous article we had developed a graph theoretical approach which is now…

We study a new family of random variables, that each arise as the distribution of the maximum or minimum of a random number $N$ of i.i.d.~random variables $X_1,X_2,\ldots,X_N$, each distributed as a variable $X$ with support on $[0,1]$. The…

We present an analytic method for computing the moments of a sum of independent and identically distributed random variables. The limiting behavior of these sums is very important to statistical theory, and the moment expressions that we…

We discuss recently developed methods that quantify the stability and generalizability of statistical findings under distributional changes. In many practical problems, the data is not drawn i.i.d. from the target population. For example,…

In this work we introduce an approach for modeling and analyzing collective behavior of a group of agents using moments. We represent the group of agents via their distribution and derive a method to estimate the dynamics of the moments. We…

In competing risks models, the joint distribution of the event times is not identifiable even when the margins are fully known, which has been referred to as the "identifiability crisis in competing risks analysis" (Crowder, 1991). We model…

Stable subordinators, and more general subordinators possessing power law probability tails, have been widely used in the context of subdiffusions, where particles get trapped or immobile in a number of time periods, called constant…

We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the…

In the context of survival analysis, Marshall and Olkin (1997) introduced families of distributions by adding a scalar parameter to a given survival function, parameterized or not. In that paper, we generalize their approach. We show how it…