相关论文: Change point analysis with irregular signals

The investment of time and resources for better strategies and methodologies to tackle a potential pandemic is key to deal with potential outbreaks of new variants or other viruses in the future. In this work, we recreated the scene of a…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the importance of accurately forecasting contagion dynamics and learning infection parameters into sharp focus. At the same time, effective policy-making requires knowledge of the uncertainty on such…

This paper develops an individual-based stochastic network SIR model for the empirical analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic. It derives moment conditions for the number of infected and active cases for single as well as multigroup epidemic…

During the course of an epidemic, one of the most challenging tasks for authorities is to decide what kind of restrictive measures to introduce and when these should be enforced. In order to take informed decisions in a fully rational…

We establish the convergence rates and asymptotic distributions of the common break change-point estimators, obtained by least squares and maximum likelihood in panel data models and compare their asymptotic variances. Our model assumptions…

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has promoted vigorous scientific activity in an effort to understand, advice and control the pandemic. Data is now freely available at a staggering rate worldwide. Unfortunately, this unprecedented level of…

Reliable short term forecasting can provide potentially lifesaving insights into logistical planning, and in particular, into the optimal allocation of resources such as hospital staff and equipment. By reinterpreting COVID-19 daily cases…

The COVID-19 pandemic has had and continues to have major impacts on planned and ongoing clinical trials. Its effects on trial data create multiple potential statistical issues. The scale of impact is unprecedented, but when viewed…

This paper introduces a novel Bayesian approach to detect changes in the variance of a Gaussian sequence model, focusing on quantifying the uncertainty in the change point locations and providing a scalable algorithm for inference. Such a…

Many problems on signal processing reduce to nonparametric function estimation. We propose a new methodology, piecewise convex fitting (PCF), and give a two-stage adaptive estimate. In the first stage, the number and location of the change…

We introduce and study two new inferential challenges associated with the sequential detection of change in a high-dimensional mean vector. First, we seek a confidence interval for the changepoint, and second, we estimate the set of indices…

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

The COVID-19 epidemic has been spreading around the world for nearly three years, and asymptomatic infections have exacerbated the spread of the epidemic. To evaluate the role of asymptomatic infections in the spread of the epidemic, we…

Detecting abrupt changes in data distribution is one of the most significant tasks in streaming data analysis. Although many unsupervised Change-Point Detection (CPD) methods have been proposed recently to identify those changes, they still…

Early assessments of the spreading rate of COVID-19 were subject to significant uncertainty, as expected with limited data and difficulties in case ascertainment, but more reliable inferences can now be made. Here, we estimate from European…

The COVID-19 pandemic has magnified an already existing trend of people looking for healthcare solutions online. One class of solutions are symptom checkers, which have become very popular in the context of COVID-19. Traditional symptom…

Epidemiological models with constant parameters may not capture satisfactory infection patterns in the presence of pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures during a pandemic, since infectiousness is a function of time. In…

We study the problem of change point localisation and inference for sequentially collected fragmented functional data, where each curve is observed only over discrete grids randomly sampled over a short fragment. The sequence of underlying…

Change point detection is becoming increasingly popular in many application areas. On one hand, most of the theoretically-justified methods are investigated in an ideal setting without model violations, or merely robust against identical…

The pattern of state changes in a biomedical time series can be related to health or disease. This work presents a principled approach for selecting a changepoint detection algorithm for a specific task, such as disease classification.…