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Obtaining accurate estimates of machine learning model uncertainties on newly predicted data is essential for understanding the accuracy of the model and whether its predictions can be trusted. A common approach to such uncertainty…

This paper introduces a Nearly Unstable INteger-valued AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (NU-INARCH) process for dealing with count time series data. It is proved that a proper normalization of the NU-INARCH process endowed with…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-19 Wagner Barreto-Souza , Ngai Hang Chan

Statistical inference in competing risks models is often based on the famous Aalen-Johansen estimator. Since the corresponding limit process lacks independent increments, it is typically applied together with Lin's (1997) resampling…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-01-31 Dennis Dobler , Markus Pauly

Despite decades of research and recent progress in adaptive control and reinforcement learning, there remains a fundamental lack of understanding in designing controllers that provide robustness to inherent non-asymptotic uncertainties…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-13 Benjamin Gravell , Tyler Summers

We develop a unified $L$-statistic testing framework for high-dimensional regression coefficients that adapts to unknown sparsity. The proposed statistics rank coordinate-wise evidence measures and aggregate the top $k$ signals, bridging…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-02-10 Ping Zhao , Fengyi Song , Huifang Ma

The success of the Lasso in the era of high-dimensional data can be attributed to its conducting an implicit model selection, i.e., zeroing out regression coefficients that are not significant. By contrast, classical ridge regression can…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-04-23 Yunyi Zhang , Dimitris N. Politis

We develop theoretical finite-sample results concerning the size of wild bootstrap-based heteroskedasticity robust tests in linear regression models. In particular, these results provide an efficient diagnostic check, which can be used to…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-08-17 Benedikt M. Pötscher , David Preinerstorfer

Robust optimization provides a principled framework for decision-making under uncertainty, with broad applications in finance, engineering, and operations research. In portfolio optimization, uncertainty in expected returns and covariances…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2025-10-15 Daniel Cunha Oliveira , Grover Guzman , Nick Firoozye

Bootstrapping was designed to randomly resample data from a fixed sample using Monte Carlo techniques. However, the original sample itself defines a discrete distribution. Convolutional methods are well suited for discrete distributions,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-19 Jared M. Clark , Richard L. Warr

Science and engineering problems subject to uncertainty are frequently both computationally expensive and feature nonsmooth parameter dependence, making standard Monte Carlo too slow, and excluding efficient use of accelerated uncertainty…

数值分析 · 数学 2021-10-01 Per Pettersson , Sebastian Krumscheid

We introduce a bootstrap procedure to test the hypothesis $H_o$ that $K+1$ variances are homogeneous. The procedure uses a variance-based statistic, and is derived from a normal-theory test for equality of variances. The test equivalently…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-06-08 Dexter Cahoy

We consider a heteroscedastic regression model in which some of the regression coefficients are zero but it is not known which ones. Penalized quantile regression is a useful approach for analyzing such data. By allowing different…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-07-23 Lan Wang , Ingrid Van Keilegrom , Adam Maidman

We consider the problem of change point detection for high-dimensional distributions in a location family when the dimension can be much larger than the sample size. In change point analysis, the widely used cumulative sum (CUSUM)…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-10-14 Mengjia Yu , Xiaohui Chen

We show that, when the double bootstrap is used to improve performance of bootstrap methods for bias correction, techniques based on using a single double-bootstrap sample for each single-bootstrap sample can be particularly effective. In…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-11-12 Jinyuan Chang , Peter Hall

The problem of quantifying uncertainty about the locations of multiple change points by means of confidence intervals is addressed. The asymptotic distribution of the change point estimators obtained as the local maximisers of moving sum…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-20 Haeran Cho , Claudia Kirch

Bootstrap for nonlinear statistics like U-statistics of dependent data has been studied by several authors. This is typically done by producing a bootstrap version of the sample and plugging it into the statistic. We suggest an alternative…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-05-28 Olimjon Sh. Sharipov , Johannes Tewes , Martin Wendler

We propose a new lack-of-fit test for quantile regression models that is suitable even with high-dimensional covariates. The test is based on the cumulative sum of residuals with respect to unidimensional linear projections of the…

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) or stochastic approximation has been widely used in model training and stochastic optimization. While there is a huge literature on analyzing its convergence, inference on the obtained solutions from SGD…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-01 Henry Lam , Zitong Wang

In the problem of model selection for a given family of linear estimators, ordered by their variance, we offer a new "smallest accepted" approach motivated by Lepski's method and multiple testing theory. The procedure selects the smallest…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-07-20 Vladimir Spokoiny , Niklas Willrich

The bootstrap, based on resampling, has, for several decades, been a widely used method for computing confidence intervals for applications where no exact method is available and when sample sizes are not large enough to be able to rely on…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-08-27 Chris Gotwalt , Li Xu , Yili Hong , William Q. Meeker