相关论文: Modelling the age distribution of longevity leader…

The ordinary contact process is used to model the spread of a disease in a population. In this model, each infected individual waits an exponentially distributed time with parameter 1 before becoming healthy. In this paper, we introduce and…

Consider a continuous-state branching population constructed as a flow of nested subordinators. Inverting the subordinators and reversing time give rise to a flow of coalescing Markov processes (with negative jumps) which correspond to the…

A new stochastic method for describing mortality is proposed and explored. It is based on differences of observed times series of the transform $\log(-\log x)$ of survival probabilities which seem to follow simple patterns over the years.…

A fundamental question in aging research concerns the demographic trajectories at the highest ages, especially for supercentenarians (persons aged 110 or more). We wish to demonstrate that the Weon model enables scientists to describe the…

We consider random walks with continuous and symmetric step distributions. We prove universal asymptotics for the average proportion of the age of the kth longest lasting record for k=1,2,... and for the probability that the record of the…

We consider a continuous time Markov process on $\mathbb{N}_0$ which can be interpreted as generalized alternating birth-death process in a non-autonomous random environment. Depending on the status of the environment the process either…

New models for evolutionary processes of mutation accumulation allow hypotheses about the age-specificity of mutational effects to be translated into predictions of heterogeneous population hazard functions. We apply these models to…

There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…

This book handles the fatty liver disease from the bio-statistical point of view . It discusses the disease process in the simple general form of health-disease-death multi-states model . Continuous Time Markov Chains are used to estimate…

We develop a Gaussian process ("GP") framework for modeling mortality rates and mortality improvement factors. GP regression is a nonparametric, data-driven approach for determining the spatial dependence in mortality rates and jointly…

A stochastic genetic model for biological aging is introduced bridging the gap between the bit-string Penna model and the Pletcher-Neuhauser approach. The phenomenon of exponentially increasing mortality function at intermediate ages and…

The issue of longevity has been long time recognized as one of key concepts in demography. A particular aspect of longevity addressed in this paper is the difference in average observed duration of life for female and male population,…

Further to the proposal and application of a stochastic methodology and the resulting first exit time distribution function to life table data we introduce a theoretical framework for the estimation of the maximum deterioration age and to…

Age dependent population dynamics are frequently modeled with generalizations of the classic McKendrick-von Foerster equation. These are deterministic systems, and a stochastic generalization was recently reported in [1,2]. Here we develop…

We present a model for biological aging that considers the number of individuals whose (inherited) genetic charge determines the maximum age for death: each individual may die before that age due to some external factor, but never after…

A simple mathematical model of the aging process for long-lived organisms is considered. The key point in this model is the assumption that the body does not have internal clocks that count out the chronological time at scales of decades.…

Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…

This paper presents a stochastic model motivated by the study of a virus-like evolving population with different mutation rates. This is a continuous time birth-death model: the birth processes are mutually-exciting Hawkes processes and the…

Representations of branching Markov processes and their measure-valued limits in terms of countable systems of particles are constructed for models with spatially varying birth and death rates. Each particle has a location and a "level,"…

The analysis of the demographic transition of the past century and a half, using both empirical data and mathematical models, has rendered a wealth of well-established facts, including the dramatic increases in life expectancy. Despite…