相关论文: On marginals and profiled posteriors for cosmologi…

Many modern applications of Bayesian inference, such as in cosmology, are based on complicated forward models with high-dimensional parameter spaces. This considerably limits the sampling of posterior distributions conditioned on observed…

A number of recent analyses of cosmological data have reported hints for the presence of extra radiation beyond the standard model expectation. In order to test the robustness of these claims under different methods of constructing…

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

In this paper, we present a method for computing the marginal likelihood, also known as the model likelihood or Bayesian evidence, from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), or other sampled posterior distributions. In order to do this, one…

In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a…

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

Comparisons between observed and predicted strong lensing properties of galaxy clusters have been routinely used to claim either tension or consistency with $\Lambda$CDM cosmology. However, standard approaches to such cosmological tests are…

Bayesian inversion generates a posterior distribution of model parameters from an observation equation and prior information both weighted by hyperparameters. The prior is also introduced for the hyperparameters in fully Bayesian inversions…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization, rather than using a single setting of weights. Bayesian marginalization can particularly improve the accuracy and calibration of modern deep neural networks, which…

Bayesian analysis has become an indispensable tool across many different cosmological fields including the study of gravitational waves, the Cosmic Microwave Background and the 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn among other phenomena. The…

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

For future surveys, spectroscopic follow-up for all supernovae will be extremely difficult. However, one can use light curve fitters, to obtain the probability that an object is a Type Ia. One may consider applying a probability cut to the…

Estimation of parameters that obey specific constraints is crucial in statistics and machine learning; for example, when parameters are required to satisfy boundedness, monotonicity, or linear inequalities. Traditional approaches impose…

In this present work, we discuss the Bayesian inference for the bivariate pseudo-exponential distribution. Initially, we assume independent gamma priors and then pseudo-gamma priors for the pseudo-exponential parameters. We are primarily…

By providing a framework of accounting for the shared ancestry inherent to all life, phylogenetics is becoming the statistical foundation of biology. The importance of model choice continues to grow as phylogenetic models continue to…

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the…

Estimating the marginal likelihoods is an essential feature of model selection in the Bayesian context. It is especially crucial to have good estimates when assessing the number of planets orbiting stars when the models explain the noisy…

This article describes posterior maximization for topic models, identifying computational and conceptual gains from inference under a non-standard parametrization. We then show that fitted parameters can be used as the basis for a novel…

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…