相关论文: GPT Deciphering Fedspeak: Quantifying Dissent Amon…

Using FOMC transcripts and customized deep learning models, we quantify ``hidden dissent'', or disagreement in the FOMC that is unobserved in formal votes. We find hidden dissent to be prevalent and systematically driven by macroeconomic…

This research article analyzes the language used in the official statements released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) after its scheduled meetings to gain insights into the impact of FOMC official statements on financial markets…

The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regularly discusses and sets monetary policy, affecting the borrowing and spending decisions of millions of people. In this work, we release Op-Fed, a dataset of 1044 human-annotated sentences…

Monetary policy pronouncements by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are a major driver of financial market returns. We construct the largest tokenized and annotated dataset of FOMC speeches, meeting minutes, and press conference…

The Federal Open Market Committee within the Federal Reserve System is responsible for managing inflation, maximizing employment, and stabilizing interest rates. Meeting minutes play an important role for market movements because they…

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statements are a major source of monetary-policy information, and even subtle changes in their wording can move global financial markets. A central task is therefore to measure the hawkish--dovish stance…

"Fedspeak", the stylized and often nuanced language used by the U.S. Federal Reserve, encodes implicit policy signals and strategic stances. The Federal Open Market Committee strategically employs Fedspeak as a communication tool to shape…

This study explores the influence of FOMC sentiment on market expectations, focusing on cognitive differences between experts and non-experts. Using sentiment analysis of FOMC minutes, we integrate these insights into a bounded rationality…

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the federal funds rate, shaping monetary policy and the broader economy. We introduce \emph{FedSight AI}, a multi-agent framework that uses large language models (LLMs) to simulate FOMC…

This study examines the relationship between Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements and financial market network structure through spectral graph theory. Using hypergraph networks constructed from S\&P 100 stocks around FOMC…

In this study, we analyze documents published by central banks using text mining techniques and propose a method to evaluate the policy tone of central banks. Since the monetary policies of major central banks have a broad impact on…

Communication is now a standard tool in the central bank's monetary policy toolkit. Theoretically, communication provides the central bank an opportunity to guide public expectations, and it has been shown empirically that central bank…

The effectiveness of central bank communication is a crucial aspect of monetary policy transmission. While recent research has examined the influence of policy communication by the chairs of the Federal Reserve on various financial…

In meetings where important decisions get made, what items receive more attention may influence the outcome. We examine how different types of rhetorical (de-)emphasis -- including hedges, superlatives, and contrastive conjunctions --…

Modern macroeconomic models, particularly those grounded in Rational Expectation Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), operate under the assumption of fully rational decision-making. This paper examines the impact of behavioral…

This paper introduces a transparent framework to identify the informational content of FOMC announcements. We do so by modelling the expectations of the FOMC and private sector agents using state of the art computational linguistic tools on…

Central banks around the world play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability. Deciphering policy implications in their communications is essential, especially as misinterpretations can disproportionately impact vulnerable…

Forecasting central bank policy decisions remains a persistent challenge for investors, financial institutions, and policymakers due to the wide-reaching impact of monetary actions. In particular, anticipating shifts in the U.S. federal…

The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) plays a significant role in affecting monetary policy and financial conditions worldwide. Although it is important to analyse the Fed's communications to extract useful information, it is generally…

We build a new measure of credit and financial market sentiment using Natural Language Processing on Twitter data. We find that the Twitter Financial Sentiment Index (TFSI) correlates highly with corporate bond spreads and other price- and…