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We study aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty estimation in a learned regressive system dynamics model. Disentangling aleatoric uncertainty (the inherent randomness of the system) from epistemic uncertainty (the lack of data) is crucial for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-21 Zhiyu An , Zhibo Hou , Wan Du

The folding entropy is a quantity originally proposed by Ruelle in 1996 during the study of entropy production in the non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. As derived through a limiting process to the non-equilibrium steady state, the…

动力系统 · 数学 2020-09-03 Gang Liao , Shirou Wang

Motivated by the need to analyze continuously updated data sets in the context of time-to-event modeling, we propose a novel nonparametric approach to estimate the conditional hazard function given a set of continuous and discrete…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-03 Daphné Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

In outlier hypothesis testing, one aims to detect outlying sequences among a given set of sequences, where most sequences are generated i.i.d. from a nominal distribution while outlying sequences (outliers) are generated i.i.d. from a…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-09-10 Lina Zhu , Lin Zhou

We employ negentropy ($J$), defined as the difference between the information content of a non-Gaussian probability distribution and a Gaussian with identical variance, as an information-theoretic probe of non-Gaussianity in the cosmic…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2026-02-03 Suman Sarkar

By now, most outlier-detection algorithms struggle to accurately detect both point anomalies and cluster anomalies simultaneously. Furthermore, a few K-nearest-neighbor-based anomaly-detection methods exhibit excellent performance on many…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2025-06-06 Kaituo Zhang , Wei Huang , Bingyang Zhang , Jinshan Xu , Xuhua Yang

The minimum error entropy (MEE) criterion has been verified as a powerful approach for non-Gaussian signal processing and robust machine learning. However, the implementation of MEE on robust classification is rather a vacancy in the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-07 Yuanhao Li , Badong Chen , Natsue Yoshimura , Yasuharu Koike

The primary endpoint in oncology is usually overall survival, where differences between therapies may only be observable after many years. To avoid withholding of a promising therapy, preliminary approval based on a surrogate endpoint is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-25 Samuel Kilian , Johannes Krisam , Meinhard Kieser

Recently, the characterization based approach for the construction of goodness of fit tests has become popular. Most of the proposed tests have been designed for complete i.i.d. samples. Here we present the adaptation of the recently…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-11 Marija Cuparić , Bojana Milošević

We consider tests of hypotheses when the parameters are not identifiable under the null in semiparametric models, where regularity conditions for profile likelihood theory fail. Exponential average tests based on integrated profile…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-08-25 Rui Song , Michael R. Kosorok , Jason P. Fine

Selective prediction, where a model has the option to abstain from making a decision, is crucial for machine learning applications in which mistakes are costly. In this work, we focus on distributional regression and introduce a framework…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-04-01 Ahmed Zaoui , Clément Dombry

The purpose of this work is to improve the efficiency in estimating the average causal effect (ACE) on the survival scale where right-censoring exists and high-dimensional covariate information is available. We propose new estimators using…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-29 Ran Dai , Cheng Zheng , Mei-Jie Zhang

"Effective robustness" measures the extra out-of-distribution (OOD) robustness beyond what can be predicted from the in-distribution (ID) performance. Existing effective robustness evaluations typically use a single test set such as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-31 Zhouxing Shi , Nicholas Carlini , Ananth Balashankar , Ludwig Schmidt , Cho-Jui Hsieh , Alex Beutel , Yao Qin

We study constrained reinforcement learning (CRL) from a novel perspective by setting constraints directly on state density functions, rather than the value functions considered by previous works. State density has a clear physical and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-06-25 Zengyi Qin , Yuxiao Chen , Chuchu Fan

The remarkable empirical performance of distributional reinforcement learning (RL) has garnered increasing attention to understanding its theoretical advantages over classical RL. By decomposing the categorical distributional loss commonly…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-25 Ke Sun , Yingnan Zhao , Enze Shi , Yafei Wang , Xiaodong Yan , Bei Jiang , Linglong Kong

The conditional density characterizes the distribution of a response variable $y$ given other predictor $x$, and plays a key role in many statistical tasks, including classification and outlier detection. Although there has been abundant…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-08 Cheng Zeng , George Michailidis , Hitoshi Iyatomi , Leo L Duan

We present a random measure approach for modeling exploration, i.e., the execution of measure-valued controls, in continuous-time reinforcement learning (RL) with controlled diffusion and jumps. First, we consider the case when sampling the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-27 Christian Bender , Nguyen Tran Thuan

Estimating the entropy of a discrete random variable is a fundamental problem in information theory and related fields. This problem has many applications in various domains, including machine learning, statistics and data compression. Over…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2020-12-22 Yuval Shalev , Amichai Painsky , Irad Ben-Gal

Accelerated life-tests (ALTs) are used for inferring lifetime characteristics of highly reliable products. In particular, step-stress ALTs increase the stress level at which units under test are subject at certain pre-fixed times, thus…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-02-12 Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan , Maria Jaenada , Leandro Pardo

A consistent goodness-of-fit test for distributional regression is introduced. The test statistic is based on a process that traces the difference between a nonparametric and a semi-parametric estimate of the marginal distribution function…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-10 Gitte Kremling , Gerhard Dikta