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The existing theorization of development economics and transition economics is probably inadequate and perhaps even flawed to accurately explain and analyze a dual economic system such as that in China. China is a country in the transition…

The issue of local government debt is widely recognized as one of the "gray rhinos" affecting the stable development of China's economy. Government debt can transmit risks to local banks, which are among the primary holders of local debt,…

This paper aims to assess the impact of COVID-19 on the public finance of Chinese local governments, with a particular focus on the effect of lockdown measures on startups during the pandemic. The outbreak has placed significant fiscal…

We solve an infinite time-horizon bounded-variation stochastic control problem with regime switching between $N$ states. This is motivated by the problem of a government that wants to control the country's debt-to-GDP (gross domestic…

Financial market resilience reflects the ability of a financial market to withstand external shocks and to recover from them, while its measurement has yet to be standardized. Accordingly, this paper quantifies the adaptability and…

This paper mainly utilizes the ARDL model and principal component analysis to investigate the relationship between the volatility of China's Shanghai Composite Index returns and the variables of exchange rate and domestic and foreign bond…

This paper investigates how the cost of public debt shapes fiscal policy and its effect on the economy. Using U.S. historical data, I show that when servicing the debt creates a fiscal burden, the government responds to spending shocks by…

Understanding the microeconomic details of technological catch-up processes offers great potential for informing both innovation economics and development policy. We study the economic transition of the PR China from an agrarian country to…

We consider a government that aims at reducing the debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio of a country. The government observes the level of the debt-to-GDP ratio and an indicator of the state of the economy, but does not directly…

This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks…

This paper studies Markov-switching (MS) models with time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) under various specifications of the transition probability matrix. Especially, we extend the two-regime common-variance setting of the…

This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw & Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this…

Do governments adjust budgetary policy to rising public debt, precluding fiscal unsustainability? Using budget data for 52 industrial and emerging economies since 1990, we apply panel methods accounting for cross-sectional dependence and…

This study employs a co-integrated socio-economic model to investigate the long-run drivers of Chinese government expenditure on public pensions, addressing critical stability and sustainability challenges. Our methodology establishes a…

Based on the quarterly data from 26 advanced economies (AEs) and 18 emerging market economies (EMs) over the past two decades, this paper estimates the short- and medium-term impacts of financial cycles on the duration and amplitude of…

We propose a dynamic model of dependence structure between financial institutions within a financial system and we construct measures for dependence and financial instability. Employing Markov structures of joint credit migrations, our…

Changes in the capital structure before and after the global financial crisis for SMEs are studied, emphasizing their financing problems, distinguishing between internal financing and external financing determinants. The empirical research…

We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…

Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly…

The expression "wage transition" refers to the fact that over the past two or three decades in all developed economies wage increases have levelled off. There has been a widening divergence and decoupling between wages on the one hand and…