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Causal inference, estimating causal effects from observational data, is a fundamental tool in many disciplines. Of particular importance across a variety of domains is the continuous treatment setting, where the variable of intervention has…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-15 Christopher Stith , Medha Barath , Vahid Balazadeh , Jesse C. Cresswell , Rahul G. Krishnan

Reliability-oriented sensitivity analysis methods have been developed for understanding the influence of model inputs relative to events which characterize the failure of a system (e.g., a threshold exceedance of the model output). In this…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-04 Marouane Il Idrissi , Vincent Chabridon , Bertrand Iooss

Comparative effectiveness research frequently addresses a time-to-event outcome and can require unique considerations in the presence of treatment noncompliance. Motivated by the challenges in addressing noncompliance in the ADAPTABLE…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-19 Chao Cheng , Bo Liu , Lisa Wruck , Fan Li , Fan Li

This paper deals with the problem of evaluating the causal effect using observational data in the presence of an unobserved exposure/ outcome variable, when cause-effect relationships between variables can be described as a directed acyclic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-06-18 Manabu Kuroki , Zhihong Cai

We describe and contrast two distinct problem areas for statistical causality: studying the likely effects of an intervention ("effects of causes"), and studying whether there is a causal link between the observed exposure and outcome in an…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-04-02 A. Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

Multivalued treatment models have typically been studied under restrictive assumptions: ordered choice, and more recently unordered monotonicity. We show how treatment effects can be identified in a more general class of models that allows…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2018-05-02 Sokbae Lee , Bernard Salanié

Establishing cause-effect relationships from observational data often relies on untestable assumptions. It is crucial to know whether, and to what extent, the conclusions drawn from non-experimental studies are robust to potential…

There is effect modification if the magnitude or stability of a treatment effect varies systematically with the level of an observed covariate. A larger or more stable treatment effect is typically less sensitive to bias from unmeasured…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-12-12 Kwonsang Lee , Dylan S. Small , Jesse Y. Hsu , Jeffrey H. Silber , Paul R. Rosenbaum

The current body of research on developing optimal treatment strategies often places emphasis on intention-to-treat analyses, which fail to take into account the compliance behavior of individuals. Methods based on instrumental variables…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-21 Cuong T. Pham , Kevin G. Lynch , James R. McKay , Ashkan Ertefaie

Causal mediation analysis is routinely conducted by applied researchers in a variety of disciplines. The goal of such an analysis is to investigate alternative causal mechanisms by examining the roles of intermediate variables that lie in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2010-11-05 Kosuke Imai , Luke Keele , Teppei Yamamoto

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making informed decisions in medicine, yet they often lack generalizability to the patient populations in clinical practice. Observational studies, on the other hand, cover a broader…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-24 Xiaoqing Tan

Causal sensitivity analysis aims to provide bounds for causal effect estimates in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, existing methods for causal sensitivity analysis are per-instance procedures, meaning that changes to the…

When teaching and discussing statistical assumptions, our focus is oftentimes placed on how to test and address potential violations rather than the effects of violating assumptions on the estimates produced by our statistical models. The…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-14 Ian A Silver

Predicting the effect of interventions with many possible variations, e.g., therapeutic content that affects mental health outcomes or an earnings call transcript that drives movement in share price, is useful across several domains.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-27 Nikita Dhawan , Arnav Paruthi , Andrew Kim , Lovedeep Gondara , Jekaterina Novikova , Chris J. Maddison

Dropout poses a significant challenge to causal inference in longitudinal studies with time-varying treatments. However, existing research does not simultaneously address dropout and time-varying treatments. We examine selective…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-18 Zhichao Jiang , Eli Ben-Michael , D. James Greiner , Ryan Halen , Kosuke Imai

A case-control study is designed to help determine if an exposure is associated with an outcome. However, since case-control studies are retrospective, they are often subject to recall bias. Recall bias can occur when study subjects do not…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-23 Kwonsang Lee , Francesca Dominici

Causal inference in observational studies is notoriously difficult, due to the fact that the experimenter is not in charge of the treatment assignment mechanism. Many potential con- founding factors (PCFs) exist in such a scenario, and if…

应用统计 · 统计学 2015-09-15 Vadim von Brzeski , Matt Taddy , David Draper

Recent work has made important contributions in the development of causally-interpretable meta-analysis. These methods transport treatment effects estimated in a collection of randomized trials to a target population of interest. Ideally,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-08 Justin M. Clark , Kollin W. Rott , James S. Hodges , Jared D. Huling

Existing work in data fusion has covered identification of causal estimands when integrating data from heterogeneous sources. These results typically require additional assumptions to make valid estimation and inference. However, there is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-10 Ngoc Q. Duong , Amy J. Pitts , Soohyun Kim , Caleb H. Miles