相关论文: Bayesian Projection of Extant Refugee and Asylum S…

The effects of the so-called "refugee crisis" of 2015-16 continue to dominate the political agenda in Europe. Migration flows were sudden and unexpected, leaving governments unprepared and exposing significant shortcomings in the field of…

Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…

Predicting forced displacement is an important undertaking of many humanitarian aid agencies, which must anticipate flows in advance in order to provide vulnerable refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) with shelter, food, and…

For nowadays severe refugee issue, we primarily set up an evaluation pattern on refugee crisis. Then, we modify our model in the consideration that time and external factors. Besides, we propose a set of policy to facilitate migration…

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net…

Understanding and predicting human migration patterns is a central challenge in population dynamics research. Traditional physics-inspired gravity and radiation models represent migration flows as functions of attractiveness using…

Unintended pregnancy and abortion estimates are needed to inform and motivate investment in global health programmes and policies. Variability in the availability and reliability of data poses challenges for producing estimates. We…

The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and…

In this study, we addressed the refugee crisis through two main models. For predicting the ultimate number of refugees, we first established a Logistic Regression Model, but due to the limited data points, its prediction accuracy was…

Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…

Accurate estimates of subnational populations are important for policy formulation and monitoring population health indicators. For example, estimates of the number of women of reproductive age are important to understand the population at…

The link between age and migration propensity is long established, but existing models of country-level net migration ignore the effect of population age distribution on past and projected migration rates. We propose a method to estimate…

An important task for any large-scale organization is to prepare forecasts of key performance metrics. Often these organizations are structured in a hierarchical manner and for operational reasons, projections of these metrics may have been…

This paper presents a mixed-methodology to forecast illegal border crossings in Europe across five key migratory routes, with a one-year time horizon. The methodology integrates machine learning techniques with qualitative insights from…

The United Nations is the major organization producing and regularly updating probabilistic population projections for all countries. International migration is a critical component of such projections, and between-country correlations are…

The refugee crisis is perhaps the single most challenging problem for Europe today. Hundreds of thousands of people have already traveled across dangerous sea passages from Turkish shores to Greek islands, resulting in thousands of dead and…

Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet…

Humanitarian agencies must be prepared to mobilize quickly in response to complex emergencies, and their effectiveness depends on their ability to identify, anticipate, and prepare for future needs. These are typically highly uncertain…

Employment outcomes of resettled refugees depend strongly on where they are placed inside the host country. Each week, a resettlement agency is assigned a batch of refugees by the United States government. The agency must place these…

Analyzing demographic data collected across multiple populations, time periods, and age groups is challenging due to the interplay of high dimensionality, demographic heterogeneity among groups, and stochastic variability within smaller…