相关论文: Political Stress Index of Poland

Models that explain the economical and political realities of nowadays societies should help all the world's citizens. Yet, the last four years showed that the current models are missing. Here we develop a dynamical society-deciders model…

In this paper a novel approach for a measurement of stresses in a capital, which induce the capital flows between economic systems, is proposed. The proposals appeal to an apparatus offered by the statistical theory of shape. We propose a…

We present results of opinion dynamics simulations based on the emotion/information/opinion (E/I/O) model, applied to a strongly polarized society. Under certain conditions the model leads to metastable coexistence of two subcommunities…

Tracking the build-up of financial vulnerabilities is a key component of financial stability policy. Due to the complexity of the financial system, this task is daunting, and there have been several proposals on how to manage this goal. One…

An annual well-being index constructed from thirteen socioeconomic factors is proposed in order to dynamically measure the mood of the US citizenry. Econometric models are fitted to the log-returns of the index in order to quantify its tail…

Population dynamic of getting divorced depends on many global factors, including social norms, economy, law or demographics as well as individual factors like the level of interpersonal or problem-solving skills of the spouses. We sought to…

Societal stress may cause far reaching political, economic and even geological effects. Nevertheless, it is still scarcely investigated, contrary to social stress, which an individual faces in their interactions within a society. It is…

The development of models to capture large-scale dynamics in human history is one of the core contributions of cliodynamics. Most often, these models are assessed by their predictive capability on some macro-scale and aggregated measure and…

Competition between varying ideas, people and institutions fuels the dynamics of socio-economic systems. Numerous analyses of the empirical data extracted from different financial markets have established a consistent set of stylized facts…

Let the population of e.g. a country where some opinion struggle occurs be varying in time, according to Verhulst equation. Consider next some competition between opinions such as the dynamics be described by Lotka and Volterra equations.…

Theories of democratic stability, populism, and party-system crisis often point to a form of polarization that comparative research rarely measures directly: hostile relations among political elites. Existing comparative measures capture…

We develop a new stock market index that captures the chaos existing in the market by measuring the mutual changes of asset prices. This new index relies on a tensor-based embedding of the stock market information, which in turn frees it…

Financial markets typically exhibit dynamically complex properties as they undergo continuous interactions with economic and environmental factors. The Efficient Market Hypothesis indicates a rich difference in the structural complexity of…

The study of complex political phenomena such as parties' polarization calls for mathematical models of political systems. In this paper, we aim at modeling the time evolution of a political system whereby various parties selfishly interact…

A new model for the dynamics of opinion formation is proposed and analysed at the mean-field level. It can be regarded as a generalization of the noisy voter model in which agents update their binary states by copying others and by an…

In part 1 we have discussed the role played by geographical and historical conditions. Here we wish to test our model and to estimate its parameters. Ti this effect two indexes are introduced. The geographical index is aimed at…

Multiple countries have recently experienced extreme political polarization, which in some cases led to escalation of hate crime, violence and political instability. Beside the much discussed presidential elections in the United States and…

Measuring the intensity of events is crucial for monitoring and tracking armed conflict. Advances in automated event extraction have yielded massive data sets of "who did what to whom" micro-records that enable data-driven approaches to…

Because stress is subjective and is expressed differently from one person to another, generic stress prediction models (i.e., models that predict the stress of any person) perform crudely. Only person-specific ones (i.e., models that…

In this study we used company level administrative data from the National Labour Inspectorate and The Polish Social Insurance Institution in order to estimate the prevalence of informal employment in Poland. Since the selection mechanism is…