相关论文: Scenarios for the Transition to AGI

For millennia, human cognition was the primary engine of progress on Earth. As AI decouples cognition from biology, the marginal cost of measurable execution falls to zero, absorbing any labor capturable by metrics--including creative,…

This paper is a submission to the Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest. In it, we estimate the likelihood of transformative artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2043 and find it to be <1%. Specifically, we argue: The bar is high: AGI…

This paper explores how artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics are transforming the global labor market. Human workers, limited to a 33% duty cycle due to rest and holidays, cost $14 to $55 per hour. In contrast, digital labor operates…

Artificial Intelligence (AI) achieved super-human performance in a broad variety of domains. We say that an AI is made Artificially Stupid on a task when some limitations are deliberately introduced to match a human's ability to do the…

In coming years or decades, artificial general intelligence (AGI) may surpass human capabilities across many critical domains. We argue that, without substantial effort to prevent it, AGIs could learn to pursue goals that are in conflict…

We investigate whether and why people might adjust compensation for workers who use AI tools. Across 13 studies (N = 4,956), participants consistently lowered compensation for workers who used AI compared to those who did not. This "AI…

In the largest survey of its kind, 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues gave predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems The aggregate forecasts…

This paper is an analysis of the different methods proposed to achieve AGI, including Human Brain Emulation, AIXI and Integrated Cognitive Architecture. First, the definition of AGI as used in this paper has been defined, and its…

This article discusses some trends and concepts in developing new generation of future Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) systems which relate to complex facets and different types of human intelligence, especially social, emotional,…

Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) marks a pivotal moment in human history. It presents the opportunity for machines to learn, adapt, and perform tasks that have the potential to assist people, from everyday activities to their…

Our focus are five related questions that stem from a critical software studies perspective. Underpinning this view is the acknowledged need to avoid assumptions regarding the inevitability of the current situation relating to AI. What we…

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) has gained global recognition as a future technology due to the emergence of breakthrough large language models and chatbots such as GPT-4 and ChatGPT, respectively. Compared to conventional AI models,…

General intelligence, the ability to solve arbitrary solvable problems, is supposed by many to be artificially constructible. Narrow intelligence, the ability to solve a given particularly difficult problem, has seen impressive recent…

Artificial general intelligence (AGI)--defined here as AI systems that match or exceed humans at most economically useful cognitive work--has moved from speculation to the centre of political and strategic debate. This paper examines three…

AI is transforming human labor at an unprecedented pace - improving 10$\times$ per year in training effectiveness. This paper analyzes how society can adapt to AI-driven human-labor automation (HLA), using Bernardi et al.'s societal…

An increasingly large number of experiments study the labor productivity effects of automation technologies such as generative algorithms. A popular question in these experiments relates to inequality: does the technology increase output…

The original vision of AI was re-articulated in 2002 via the term 'Artificial General Intelligence' or AGI. This vision is to build 'Thinking Machines' - computer systems that can learn, reason, and solve problems similar to the way humans…

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) does not yet exist, but given the pace of technological development in artificial intelligence, it is projected to reach human-level intelligence within roughly the next two decades. After that, many…

This study demonstrates the extent to which prominent debates about the future of AI are best understood as subjective, philosophical disagreements over the history and future of technological change rather than as objective, material…

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to reshape the workforce, its current trajectory raises pressing questions about its ultimate purpose. Why does job automation dominate the agenda, even at the expense of human agency and equity?…