相关论文: Modeling the Age Pattern of Fertility: An Individu…
Age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) provide the most extensive record of reproductive change, but their aggregate nature obscures the individual-level behavioral mechanisms that drive fertility trends. To bridge this micro-macro divide, we…
We consider an empirical likelihood framework for inference for a statistical model based on an informative sampling design and population-level information. The population-level information is summarized in the form of estimating equations…
The present study deals with the estimation of the mean value of fecundability by fitting a theoretical distribution from the observed month of first conception of the married women who did not use any contraceptive method before their…
This paper sets out a forecasting method that employs a mixture of parametric functions to capture the pattern of fertility with respect to age. The overall level of cohort fertility is decomposed over the range of fertile ages using a…
The standard methods to calculate the Total Fertility Rate require the reliable age-specific fertility rate including birth data and the related age-specific women's population data. Historically, the number of births was often not counted…
We develop a linear one-sex dynamical model of human population reproduction through marriage. In our model, a woman may marry and divorce multiple times; however, only women who are currently married are assumed to bear children. The…
Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…
Accuracy in fertility forecasting has proved challenging and warrants renewed attention. One way to improve accuracy is to combine the strengths of a set of existing models through model averaging. The model-averaged forecast is derived…
The probability of the survival of the population of individuals of both sexes of given mature age, procreation rate and structure stability has been searched in the numerical experiment. The populations with long period of reproduction and…
Fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and nativity of women in Australia significantly impact population composition at sub-national levels. We aim to provide consistent fertility forecasts for Australian women characterized by…
This article is a presentation of specific recent results describing scaling limits of individual-based models. Thanks to them, we wish to relate the time-scales typical of demographic dynamics and natural selection to the parameters of the…
We develop a general modelling framework for compartmental epidemiological systems structured by continuous variables which are linked to the levels of expression of compartment-specific traits. We start by formulating an individual-based…
This paper aims to develop practical applications of the model for the highly technical measure-valued populations developed by the authors in \cite{FanEtal20}. We consider the problem of estimation of parameters in the general age and…
Representations of population models in terms of countable systems of particles are constructed, in which each particle has a `type', typically recording both spatial position and genetic type, and a level. For finite intensity models, the…
This paper considers a nonlinear model for population dynamics with age structure. The fertility rate with respect to age is non constant and has the form proposed by [17]. Moreover, its multiplicative structure and the multiplicative…
A multilevel functional data method is adapted for forecasting age-specific mortality for two or more populations in developed countries with high-quality vital registration systems. It uses multilevel functional principal component…
When studying a national-level population, demographers can safely ignore the effect of individual-level randomness on age-sex structure. When studying a single community, or group of communities, however, the potential importance of…
Diversification models describe the random growth of evolutionary trees, modeling the historical relationships of species through speciation and extinction events. One class of such models allows for independently changing traits, or types,…
A general multi-type population model is considered, where individuals live and reproduce according to their age and type, but also under the influence of the size and composition of the entire population. We describe the dynamics of the…
Historically, matrix projection models (MPMs) have been employed to study population dynamics with regard to size, age or structure. To work with continuous traits, in the past decade, integral projection models (IPMs) have been proposed.…