相关论文: Approximations of semi-Markov processes and insura…
The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial…
In this paper, we consider a class of inhomogeneous semi-Markov processes directly based on intensity processes for marked point processes. We show that this class satisfies the semi-Markov properties defined elsewhere in the literature. We…
We propose a method to approximate continuous-time, continuous-state stochastic processes by a discrete-time Markov chain defined on a nonuniform grid. Our method provides exact moment matching for processes whose first and second moments…
In modern life insurance, Markov processes in continuous time on a finite or at least countable state space have been over the years an important tool for the modelling of the states of an insured. Motivated by applications in disability…
We investigate the Poisson regression method for Markov and semi-Markov jump processes from a nonparametric angle, allowing the lengths of the time and duration intervals in the partition to vary with the number of observations. Imposing no…
We consider the task of generating draws from a Markov jump process (MJP) between two time-points at which the process is known. Resulting draws are typically termed bridges and the generation of such bridges plays a key role in…
A possibly time-dependent transition intensity matrix or generator $(Q(t))$ characterizes the law of a Markov jump process (MP). For a time homogeneous MP, the transition probability matrix (TPM) can be expressed as a matrix exponential of…
This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in…
Semi-Markov models are widely used for survival analysis and reliability analysis. In general, there are two competing parameterizations and each entails its own interpretation and inference properties. On the one hand, a semi-Markov…
Diffusive approximations of Markov jump processes often fail to accurately capture large fluctuations. This is confounding, as the rare events triggered by these large fluctuations, such as the failure of electronic memories, are often the…
For integer valued random variables, the translated Poisson distributions form a flexible family for approximation in total variation, in much the same way that the normal family is used for approximation in Kolmogorov distance. Using the…
Markov jump processes (or continuous-time Markov chains) are a simple and important class of continuous-time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of simulating from the posterior distribution over paths in these models,…
Hybrid systems, and Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes in particular, are widely used to model and numerically study systems exhibiting multiple time scales in biochemical reaction kinetics and related areas. In this paper an almost…
Consider a system of interacting particles indexed by the nodes of a graph whose vertices are equipped with marks representing parameters of the model such as the environment or initial data. Each particle takes values in a countable state…
A continuous-time Markov process $X$ can be conditioned to be in a given state at a fixed time $T > 0$ using Doob's $h$-transform. This transform requires the typically intractable transition density of $X$. The effect of the $h$-transform…
The estimation of absorption time distributions of Markov jump processes is an important task in various branches of statistics and applied probability. While the time-homogeneous case is classic, the time-inhomogeneous case has recently…
In this paper we consider large state space continuous time Markov chains (MCs) arising in the field of systems biology. For density dependent families of MCs that represent the interaction of large groups of identical objects, Kurtz has…
In this paper, we consider statistical estimation of time-inhomogeneous aggregate Markov models. Unaggregated models, which corresponds to Markov chains, are commonly used in multi-state life insurance to model the biometric states of an…
Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via…
In this paper we propose a new method for approximating the nonstationary moment dynamics of one dimensional Markovian birth-death processes. By expanding the transition probabilities of the Markov process in terms of Poisson-Charlier…