相关论文: A Bayesian Skew-heavy-tailed modelling for loss re…

This paper proposes methods for Bayesian inference in time-varying parameter (TVP) quantile regression (QR) models featuring conditional heteroskedasticity. I use data augmentation schemes to render the model conditionally Gaussian and…

We propose a new flexible tensor model for multiple-equation regression that accounts for latent regime changes. The model allows for dynamic coefficients and multi-dimensional covariates that vary across equations. We assume the…

This paper aims to more effectively manage and mitigate stock market risks by accurately characterizing financial market returns and volatility. We enhance the Stochastic Volatility (SV) model by incorporating fat-tailed distributions and…

Discrete choice models with non-monotonic response functions are important in many areas of application, especially political sciences and marketing. This paper describes a novel unfolding model for binary data that allows for heavy-tailed…

Traditional techniques for calculating outstanding claim liabilities such as the chain ladder are notoriously at risk of being distorted by outliers in past claims data. Unfortunately, the literature in robust methods of reserving is scant,…

Traditional non-life reserving models largely neglect the vast amount of information collected over the lifetime of a claim. This information includes covariates describing the policy, claim cause as well as the detailed history collected…

Approximate Bayesian inference for the class of latent Gaussian models can be achieved efficiently with integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA). Based on recent reformulations in the INLA methodology, we propose a further extension…

We introduce an individual claims forecasting framework utilizing Bayesian mixture density networks that can be used for claims analytics tasks such as case reserving and triaging. The proposed approach enables incorporating claims…

This paper develops a flexible and computationally efficient multivariate volatility model, which allows for dynamic conditional correlations and volatility spillover effects among financial assets. The new model has desirable properties…

In various applications of heavy-tail modelling, the assumed Pareto behavior is tempered ultimately in the range of the largest data. In insurance applications, claim payments are influenced by claim management and claims may for instance…

Mixture models are flexible tools in density estimation and classification problems. Bayesian estimation of such models typically relies on sampling from the posterior distribution using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Label switching arises…

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

In this paper we perform Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models with heavy tail distributions using Metropolis adjusted Langevin (MALA) and Riemman manifold Langevin (MMALA) methods. We provide analytical expressions for the…

A new multivariate integer-valued Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic process based on a multivariate Poisson generalized inverse Gaussian distribution is proposed. The estimation of parameters of the proposed…

We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order Markov chains when an upper bound on the order of the chain is known but the true order and nature of the serial dependence are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric…

We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…

We perform Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations for a Bayesian inference of the GJR-GARCH model which is one of asymmetric GARCH models. The adaptive construction scheme is used for the construction of the proposal density in the…

For large model spaces, the potential entrapment of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based methods with spike-and-slab priors poses significant challenges in posterior computation in regression models. On the other hand, maximum a posteriori…

Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are often deemed too computationally intensive to be of any practical use for big data applications, and in particular for inference on datasets containing a large number $n$ of individual data points, also…

The availability of data sets with large numbers of variables is rapidly increasing. The effective application of Bayesian variable selection methods for regression with these data sets has proved difficult since available Markov chain…