相关论文: Exact confidence intervals for the mixing distribu…

Stochastic spreading models defined on complex network topologies are used to mimic the diffusion of diseases, information, and opinions in real-world systems. Existing theoretical approaches to the characterization of the models in terms…

A reasonable confidence interval should have a confidence coefficient no less than the given nominal level and a small expected length to reliably and accurately estimate the parameter of interest, and the bootstrap interval is considered…

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…

Split sample methods have recently been put forward as a way to reduce the coverage oscillations that haunt confidence intervals for parameters of lattice distributions, such as the binomial and Poisson distributions. We study split sample…

We introduce a novel statistical significance-based approach for clustering hierarchical data using semi-parametric linear mixed-effects models designed for responses with laws in the exponential family (e.g., Poisson and Bernoulli). Within…

Exact inference of marginals in probabilistic graphical models (PGM) is known to be intractable, necessitating the use of approximate methods. Most of the existing variational techniques perform iterative message passing in loopy graphs…

We propose a new data-augmentation strategy for fully Bayesian inference in models with binomial likelihoods. The approach appeals to a new class of Polya-Gamma distributions, which are constructed in detail. A variety of examples are…

This paper considers metric spaces where distances between a pair of nodes are represented by distance intervals. The goal is to study methods for the determination of hierarchical clusters, i.e., a family of nested partitions indexed by a…

Many recently developed Bayesian methods have focused on sparse signal detection. However, much less work has been done addressing the natural follow-up question: how to make valid inferences for the magnitude of those signals after…

Identifying pure components in mixtures is a common yet challenging problem. The associated unmixing process requires the pure components, also known as endmembers, to be sufficiently spectrally distinct. Even with this requirement met,…

This paper adopts a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model where the mixing distribution belongs to the wide class of normalized homogeneous completely random measures. We propose a truncation method for the mixing distribution by discarding…

A new maximum likelihood method for deconvoluting a continuous density with a positive lower bound on a known compact support in additive measurement error models with known error distribution using the approximate Bernstein type polynomial…

Construction of tight confidence regions and intervals is central to statistical inference and decision making. This paper develops new theory showing minimum average volume confidence regions for categorical data. More precisely, consider…

This paper reviews two main types of prediction interval methods under a parametric framework. First, we describe methods based on an (approximate) pivotal quantity. Examples include the plug-in, pivotal, and calibration methods. Then we…

We introduce an extension of the P\'olya tree approach for constructing distributions on the space of probability measures. By using optional stopping and optional choice of splitting variables, the construction gives rise to random…

We examine the problem of making reconciled forecasts of large collections of related time series through a behavioural/Bayesian lens. Our approach explicitly acknowledges and exploits the 'connectedness' of the series in terms of…

We consider the problem of recovering a distribution function on the real line from observations additively contaminated with errors following the standard Laplace distribution. Assuming that the latent distribution is completely unknown…

We propose a new approach for estimating the parameters of a probability distribution. It consists on combining two new methods of estimation. The first is based on the definition of a new distance measuring the difference between…

We extend in two directions our previous results about the sampling and the empirical measures of immortal branching Markov processes. Direct applications to molecular biology are rigorous estimates of the mutation rates of polymerase chain…

Due to their accuracies, methods based on ensembles of regression trees are a popular approach for making predictions. Some common examples include Bayesian additive regression trees, boosting and random forests. This paper focuses on…