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Comparing outcomes across treatments is essential in medicine and public policy. To do so, researchers typically estimate a set of parameters, possibly counterfactual, with each targeting a different treatment. Treatment-specific means are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-07 Alec McClean , Yiting Li , Sunjae Bae , Mara A. McAdams-DeMarco , Iván Díaz , Wenbo Wu

Synthetic control methods are widely used to estimate the treatment effect on a single treated unit in time-series settings. A common approach to estimate synthetic control weights is to regress the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-06 Chan Park , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Recent work has focused on nonparametric estimation of conditional treatment effects, but inference has remained relatively unexplored. We propose a class of nonparametric tests for both quantitative and qualitative treatment effect…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-07 Oliver Dukes , Mats J. Stensrud , Riccardo Brioschi , Aaron Hudson

Extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population requires ``generalizability'' or ``transportability'' assumptions, which state that randomized and non-randomized individuals are…

Clinical study populations often differ meaningfully from the broader populations to which results are intended to generalize. Weighting methods such as inverse probability of sampling weights (IPSW) reweight study participants to resemble…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-02 William Stewart , Carly L. Brantner , Elizabeth A. Stuart , Laine Thomas

With medical tests becoming increasingly available, concerns about over-testing and over-treatment dramatically increase. Hence, it is important to understand the influence of testing on treatment selection in general practice. Most…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-11 Yun Li , Irina Bondarenko , Michael R. Elliott , Timothy P. Hofer , Jeremy M. G. Taylor

Using state-level opioid overdose mortality data from 1999-2016, we simulated four time-varying treatment scenarios, which correspond to real-world policy dynamics (ramp up, ramp down, temporary and inconsistent). We then evaluated seven…

The participants in randomized trials and other studies used for causal inference are often not representative of the populations seen by clinical decision-makers. To account for differences between populations, researchers may consider…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-12 Anders Huitfeldt , Sonja A. Swanson , Mats Julius Stensrud , Etsuji Suzuki

Estimating the joint effect of a multivariate, continuous exposure is crucial, particularly in environmental health where interest lies in simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple environmental pollutants on health. We develop novel…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-06 Heejun Shin , Antonio Linero , Michelle Audirac , Kezia Irene , Danielle Braun , Joseph Antonelli

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects has become increasingly important in many fields and life and death decisions are now based on these estimates: for example, selecting a personalized course of medical treatment. Recently, a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-04-01 Sören R. Künzel , Simon J. S. Walter , Jasjeet S. Sekhon

Identifying covariates that modify treatment effects is a central problem in causal inference. Yet existing data-adaptive procedures do not provide finite-sample control over the expected number of false discoveries, risking spurious…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Omar Melikechi

Instrumental variables are a popular study design for the estimation of treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the canonical instrumental variables design, the instrument is a binary variable. In many settings,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-10-10 Prabrisha Rakshit , Alexander Levis , Luke Keele

The purpose of this work is to transport the information from multiple randomized controlled trials to the target population where we only have the control group data. Previous works rely critically on the mean exchangeability assumption.…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-09-29 Yuhang Zhang , Yue Liu , Zhihua Zhang

Inverse weighting with an estimated propensity score is widely used by estimation methods in causal inference to adjust for confounding bias. However, directly inverting propensity score estimates can lead to instability, bias, and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-11 Lars van der Laan , Ziming Lin , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

We consider the problem of estimating the effects of a binary treatment on a continuous outcome of interest from observational data in the absence of confounding by unmeasured factors. We provide a new estimator of the population average…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-04 James Robins , Mariela Sued , Quanhong Lei-Gomez , Andrea Rotnitzky

Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) is a popular propensity score (PS)-based approach to estimate causal effects in observational studies at risk of confounding bias. A major issue when estimating the PS is the presence of…

Weighted estimators are commonly used for estimating exposure effects in observational settings to establish causal relations. These estimators have a long history of development when the exposure of interest is binary and where the weights…

The doubly robust estimator, which models both the propensity score and outcomes, is a popular approach to estimate the average treatment effect in the potential outcome setting. The primary appeal of this estimator is its theoretical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-11 Kaoru Babasaki , Shonosuke Sugasawa , Kosaku Takanashi , Kenichiro McAlinn

This paper extends the literature on the theoretical properties of synthetic controls to the case of non-linear generative models, showing that the synthetic control estimator is generally biased in such settings. I derive a lower bound for…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-11-23 Oscar Engelbrektson

Two important considerations in clinical research studies are proper evaluations of internal and external validity. While randomized clinical trials can overcome several threats to internal validity, they may be prone to poor external…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-19 Kevin P. Josey , Fan Yang , Debashis Ghosh , Sridharan Raghavan