相关论文: Learning COVID-19 Regional Transmission Using Univ…

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the world unevenly; while industrial economies have been able to produce the tests necessary to track the spread of the virus and mostly avoided complete lockdowns, developing countries have faced issues…

We propose an extension of the classical susceptible infectious recovered (SIR) model that incorporates the effects of spatial propagation of an epidemic through a small number of additional compartments. The model is designed to capture…

COVID-19 pandemic has been raging all around the world for almost a year now, as of November 1, 2020. In this paper, we try to analyze the variation of the COVID-19 pandemic in different countries in the light of some modifications to the…

The outbreak of COVID-19, beginning in 2019 and continuing through the time of writing, has led to renewed interest in the mathematical modeling of infectious disease. Recent works have focused on partial differential equation (PDE) models,…

The world is still fighting against COVID-19, which has been lasting for more than a year. Till date, it has been a greatest challenge to human beings in fighting against COVID-19 since, the pathogen SARS-COV-2 that causes COVID-19 has…

We provide an overview of the methods that can be used for prediction under uncertainty and data fitting of dynamical systems, and of the fundamental challenges that arise in this context. The focus is on SIR-like models, that are being…

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, it is of critical significance to provide a timely risk prediction of the COVID-19 in multi-level. To implement it and evaluate the public health policies, we develop a framework with…

OBJECTIVES: to describe the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic with a focus on undetected cases and to evaluate different post-lockdown scenarios. DESIGN: the study introduces a SEIR compartmental model, taking into account the…

In late 2019, COVID-19, a severe respiratory disease, emerged, and since then, the world has been facing a deadly pandemic caused by it. This ongoing pandemic has had a significant effect on different aspects of societies. The uncertainty…

The classic SIR model of epidemic dynamics is solved completely by quadratures, including a time integral transform expanded in a series of incomplete gamma functions. The model is also generalized to arbitrary time-dependent infection…

The worldwide spread of COVID-19 has called for fast advancement of new modelling strategies to estimate its unprecedented spread. Here, we introduce a model based on the fundamental SIR equations with a stochastic disorder by a random…

Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…

The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is…

The aim of this paper consists in the application of a recent epidemiological model, namely SEIR with Social Distancing (SEIR--SD), extended here through the definition of a social distancing function varying over time, to assess the…

We extend the classical SIR model of infectious disease spread to account for time dependence in the parameters, which also include diffusivities. The temporal dependence accounts for the changing characteristics of testing, quarantine and…

We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This…

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted billions globally. It challenges public health and healthcare systems due to its rapid spread and severe respiratory effects. An effective strategy to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic involves…

It is of vital importance to understand and track the dynamics of rapidly unfolding epidemics. The health and economic consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic provide a poignant case. Here we point out that since they are based on…

The investment of time and resources for better strategies and methodologies to tackle a potential pandemic is key to deal with potential outbreaks of new variants or other viruses in the future. In this work, we recreated the scene of a…

The COVID19 pandemic, a unique and devastating respiratory disease outbreak, has affected global populations as the disease spreads rapidly. Recent Deep Learning breakthroughs may improve COVID19 prediction and forecasting as a tool of…