相关论文: The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system u…
We propose a comprehensive framework able to address both the predictability of the first and of the second kind for high-dimensional chaotic models. For this purpose, we analyse the properties of a newly introduced multistable climate toy…
A complex pervasive system is typically composed of many cooperating \emph{nodes}, running on machines with different capabilities, and pervasively distributed across the environment. These systems pose several new challenges such as the…
This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanism arising from multi-agent interactions) and…
This paper is devoted to the study of nonautonomous multivalued semiflows and their associated pullback attractors. For this kind of dynamical systems we are able to characterize the upper and lower bounds of the attractor as complete…
Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty…
One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…
In many real world chaotic systems, the interest is typically in determining when the system will behave in an extreme manner. Flooding and drought, extreme heatwaves, large earthquakes, and large drops in the stock market are examples of…
An important problem in modern applied science is characterizing the behavior of systems with complex internal dynamics subjected to external forcings from their environment. While a great variety of techniques has been developed to analyze…
We study long-time dynamics of a class of abstract second order in time evolution equations in a Hilbert space with the damping term depending both on displacement and velocity. This damping represents the nonlinear strong dissipation…
Species subject to predation and environmental threats commonly exhibit variable periods of population boom and bust over long timescales. Understanding and predicting such behavior, especially given the inherent heterogeneity and…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
The atmosphere is chaotic. This fundamental property of the climate system makes forecasting weather incredibly challenging: it's impossible to expect weather models to ever provide perfect predictions of the Earth system beyond timescales…
Subjective wellbeing is a fundamental aspect of human life, influencing life expectancy and economic productivity, among others. Mobility plays a critical role in maintaining wellbeing, yet the increasing frequency and intensity of both…
Many decision making systems deployed in the real world are not static - a phenomenon known as model adaptation takes place over time. The need for transparency and interpretability of AI-based decision models is widely accepted and thus…
Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…
The response of ecosystems to perturbations is considered from a thermodynamic perspective by acknowledging that, as for all macroscopic systems and processes, the dynamics and stability of ecosystems is subject to definite thermodynamic…
New results on the behaviour of the fast motion in slow-fast systems of ODEs with dependence on the fast time are given in terms of tracking of nonautonomous attractors. Under quite general assumptions, including the uniform ultimate…
Transitions to absorbing states are of fundamental importance in non-equilibrium physics as well as ecology. In ecology, absorbing states correspond to the extinction of species. We here study the spatial population dynamics of three…
Understanding systems level behaviour of many interacting agents is challenging in various ways, here we'll focus on the how the interaction between components can lead to hierarchical structures with different types of dynamics, or…
Some issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Godel's…