相关论文: The evolution of a non-autonomous chaotic system u…

How will the climate system respond to anthropogenic forcings? One approach to this question relies on climate model projections. Current climate projections are considerably uncertain. Characterizing and, if possible, reducing this…

Recent research on the non-stationary nature of the dynamics of complex systems is reviewed through three specific models. The long time dynamics consists of a slow, decelerating but spasmodic release of generalized intrinsic strain. These…

Different disciplines pursue the aim to develop models which characterize certain phenomena as accurately as possible. Climatology is a prime example, where the temporal evolution of the climate is modeled. In order to compare and improve…

The dynamics of glacial cycles is studied in terms of the dynamical systems theory. We explore the dependence of the climate state on the phase of astronomical forcing by examining five conceptual models of glacial cycles proposed in the…

Reliable prediction of large chaotic sytems in the short to middle time range is of interest in a number of fields, including climate, ecology, seismology, and economics. In this paper, results from chaos theory, and statistical theory are…

In many practical applications, evaluating the joint impact of combinations of environmental variables is important for risk management and structural design analysis. When such variables are considered simultaneously, non-stationarity can…

Predictive skill of complex models is often not uniform in model-state space; in weather forecasting models, for example, the skill of the model can be greater in populated regions of interest than in "remote" regions of the globe. Given a…

Internal climate variability arises from the climate system's inherently chaotic dynamics. Quantifying it is essential for climate science, as it enables risk-based decision-making and differentiates between externally forced change and…

Environmental science almost invariably proposes problems of extreme complexity, typically characterized by strongly nonlinear evolution dynamics. The systems under investigation have many degrees of freedom - which makes them complicated -…

Systems exhibiting nonlinear dynamics, including but not limited to chaos, are ubiquitous across Earth Sciences such as Meteorology, Hydrology, Climate and Ecology, as well as Biology such as neural and cardiac processes. However, System…

The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the…

Scaling has been proposed as a powerful tool to analyze the properties of complex systems, and in particular for cities where it describes how various properties change with population. The empirical study of scaling on a wide range of…

Conditional diffusion models provide a natural framework for probabilistic prediction of dynamical systems and have been successfully applied to fluid dynamics and weather prediction. However, in many settings, the available information at…

In this brief report we discuss how continuous changes on the physical parameters that determine the weather conditions may lead to long term climate variability. This variability of the weather patterns are a response to continuous random…

A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- are inherently non-stationary, for example due to strong…

Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…

We use continuous wavelet tools to characterize the dynamics of climate change across time and frequencies. This approach allows us to capture the changing patterns in the relationship between global mean temperature anomalies and climate…

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. We show for the first time…

We study the problem of modeling a non-linear dynamical system when given a time series by deriving equations directly from the data. Despite the fact that time series data are given as input, models for dynamics and estimation algorithms…

We study prediction-assimilation systems, which have become routine in meteorology and oceanography and are rapidly spreading to other areas of the geosciences and of continuum physics. The long-term, nonlinear stability of such a system…