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Detecting heterogeneity in treatment response enriches the interpretation of gerontologic trials. In aging research, estimating the effect of the intervention on clinically meaningful outcomes faces analytical challenges when it is…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-01-08 Changjun Li , Heather Allore , Michael O. Harhay , Fan Li , Guangyu Tong

Estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) plays an essential role in modern medicine by informing treatment decision-making at a patient level. Several metalearners have been proposed recently to estimate CATEs in an…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-09-07 Yizhe Xu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Erik Sverdrup , Scott Fleming , Stefan Wager , Nigam Shah

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a foundational metric in causal inference, widely used to assess intervention efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, in many applications -- particularly in healthcare -- this static…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-23 Julianna Piskorz , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Harry Amad , Mihaela van der Schaar

This paper establishes sufficient conditions for the identification of the marginal treatment effects with multivalued treatments. Our model is based on a multinomial choice model with utility maximization. Our MTE generalizes the MTE…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-30 Toshiki Tsuda

One size fits all approaches to medicine have become a thing of the past as the understanding of individual differences grows. The paper introduces a test for the presence of heterogeneity in treatment effects in a clinical trial.…

The aim of clinical effectiveness research using repositories of electronic health records is to identify what health interventions 'work best' in real-world settings. Since there are several reasons why the net benefit of intervention may…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-19 Jie Zhu , Blanca Gallego

Identifying heterogeneity in a population's response to a health or policy intervention is crucial for evaluating and informing policy decisions. We propose a novel heterogeneous treatment effect estimator in the difference-in-differences…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-24 Xinkun Nie , Chen Lu , Stefan Wager

In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-08 Susan Athey , Guido Imbens

Accurately estimating personalized treatment effects within a study site (e.g., a hospital) has been challenging due to limited sample size. Furthermore, privacy considerations and lack of resources prevent a site from leveraging…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-17 Xiaoqing Tan , Chung-Chou H. Chang , Ling Zhou , Lu Tang

Accurately predicting conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is crucial in personalized medicine and digital platform analytics. Since the treatments of interest often cannot be directly randomized, observational data is leveraged to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-05 Miruna Oprescu , Nathan Kallus

With a large number of baseline covariates, we propose a new semi-parametric modeling strategy for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation and individualized treatment selection, which are two major goals in personalized medicine. We…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-12 Wenchuan Guo , Xiao-hua Zhou , Shujie Ma

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is the best measure of individual causal effects given baseline covariates. However, the CATE only captures the (conditional) average, and can overlook risks and tail events, which are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-05 Nathan Kallus , Miruna Oprescu

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is of prime importance in many disciplines, ranging from personalized medicine to economics among many others. Random forests have been shown to be a flexible and powerful approach to HTE…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-07 Susanne Dandl , Torsten Hothorn , Heidi Seibold , Erik Sverdrup , Stefan Wager , Achim Zeileis

There are a number of available methods for selecting whom to prioritize for treatment, including ones based on treatment effect estimation, risk scoring, and hand-crafted rules. We propose rank-weighted average treatment effect (RATE)…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-11-30 Steve Yadlowsky , Scott Fleming , Nigam Shah , Emma Brunskill , Stefan Wager

We propose a novel method, termed the M-learner, for estimating heterogeneous indirect and total treatment effects and identifying relevant subgroups within a mediation framework. The procedure comprises four key steps. First, we compute…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-14 Xingyu Li , Qing Liu , Tony Jiang , Hong Amy Xia , Brian P. Hobbs , Peng Wei

We propose a model averaging approach, combined with a partition and matching method to estimate the conditional average treatment effects under heteroskedastic error settings. The proposed approach has asymptotic optimality and consistency…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Pengfei Shi , Xinyu Zhang , Wei Zhong

Specifications that impose constant treatment effects are common but biased, while fully flexible alternatives can be imprecise or infeasible. Under a bound on treatment effect heterogeneity, we propose a generalized ridge estimator,…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-07 Soonwoo Kwon , Liyang Sun

We consider the estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects with arbitrary machine learning methods in the presence of unobserved confounders with the aid of a valid instrument. Such settings arise in A/B tests with an intent-to-treat…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2019-06-07 Vasilis Syrgkanis , Victor Lei , Miruna Oprescu , Maggie Hei , Keith Battocchi , Greg Lewis

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) over time is crucial in many disciplines such as personalized medicine. For example, electronic health records are commonly collected over several time periods and then used to personalize…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-07 Dennis Frauen , Konstantin Hess , Stefan Feuerriegel

A key assumption of the differences-in-differences designs is that the average evolution of untreated potential outcomes is the same across different treatment cohorts: a parallel trends assumption. In this paper, we relax the parallel…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-10-10 Myungkou Shin