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Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) from observational data involves modeling decisions that differ from supervised learning, particularly concerning how to regularize model complexity. Previous approaches can be grouped…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-03 Zhongyuan Liang , Lars van der Laan , Ahmed Alaa

This paper presents a weighted optimization framework that unifies the binary,multi-valued, continuous, as well as mixture of discrete and continuous treatment, under the unconfounded treatment assignment. With a general loss function, the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2018-08-20 Chunrong Ai , Oliver Linton , Kaiji Motegi , Zheng Zhang

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

The credibility revolution advances the use of research designs that permit identification and estimation of causal effects. However, understanding which mechanisms produce measured causal effects remains a challenge. The dominant current…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-08 Jiawei Fu , Tara Slough

A central goal of modern causal inference is estimating heterogeneous treatment effects to answer questions like "how does an intervention affect each unit," rather than only on average. We study this problem with panel-data where we…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-29 Anay Mehrotra , Phuc Tran , Van H. Vu , Manolis Zampetakis

We propose a framework that aligns Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation with profit maximization. Our method recognizes that, for customers with extreme treatment effects, additional estimation accuracy is unlikely to…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-04-21 Artem Timoshenko , Caio Waisman

In many clinical contexts, estimating effects of treatment in time-to-event data is complicated not only by confounding, censoring, and heterogeneity, but also by the presence of a cured subpopulation in which the event of interest never…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-06 Yuqi Li , Quinn Lanners , Matthew M. Engelhard

In many medical and business applications, researchers are interested in estimating individualized treatment effects using data from a randomized experiment. For example in medical applications, doctors learn the treatment effects from…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-01 Kevin Wu Han , Han Wu

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effect is an important task in causal inference with wide application fields. It has also attracted increasing attention from machine learning community in recent years. In this work, we reinterpret the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-10-26 Ran Chen , Hanzhong Liu

In causal inference about two treatments, Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) play an important role as a quantity representing an individualized causal effect, defined as a difference between the expected outcomes of the two…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-10-26 Masahiro Kato , Masaaki Imaizumi

Causal inference methods for treatment effect estimation usually assume independent units. However, this assumption is often questionable because units may interact, resulting in spillover effects between them. We develop augmented inverse…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-08 Corinne Emmenegger , Meta-Lina Spohn , Timon Elmer , Peter Bühlmann

When estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, missing outcome data can complicate treatment effect estimation, causing certain subgroups of the population to be poorly represented. In this work, we discuss this commonly overlooked…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-04-15 Matthew Pryce , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Ruth H. Keogh , Stijn Vansteelandt

Heterogeneous Treatment Effect (HTE) and Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) models relax the assumption that treatment effects are the same for every user. We present a large scale industrial framework for estimating HTE using…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-04 Jing Pan , Li Shi , Paul Lo

In this position and problem pitch paper, we offer a solution to the reference class problem in causal inference. We apply the Reconcile algorithm for model multiplicity in machine learning to reconcile heterogeneous effects in causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-12 Audrey Chang , Emily Diana , Alexander Williams Tolbert

Heterogeneous treatment effect models allow us to compare treatments at subgroup and individual levels, and are of increasing popularity in applications like personalized medicine, advertising, and education. In this talk, we first survey…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-28 Zijun Gao , Trevor Hastie

Machine learning has shown much promise in helping improve the quality of medical, legal, and financial decision-making. In these applications, machine learning models must satisfy two important criteria: (i) they must be causal, since the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-10-12 Carolyn Kim , Osbert Bastani

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…

The heterogeneous treatment effect plays a crucial role in precision medicine.There is evidence that real-world data, even subject to biases, can be employed as supplementary evidence for randomized clinical trials to improve the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-04 Guangcai Mao , Shu Yang , Xiaofei Wang

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is critical in domains such as personalized medicine, resource allocation, and policy evaluation. A central challenge lies in identifying subpopulations that respond differently to interventions,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-18 Zilong Wang , Turgay Ayer , Shihao Yang

We address a core problem in causal inference: estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using panel data with general treatment patterns. Many existing methods either do not utilize the potential underlying structure in panel data or have…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-06-11 Retsef Levi , Elisabeth Paulson , Georgia Perakis , Emily Zhang