相关论文: Treatment Effects in Extreme Regimes

This paper concerns estimation and inference for treatment effects in deep tails of the counterfactual distribution of unobservable potential outcomes corresponding to a continuously valued treatment. We consider two measures for the deep…

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are…

The potential outcomes framework serves as a fundamental tool for quantifying causal effects. The average dose-response function (also called the effect curve), denoted as (\mu(t)), is typically of interest when dealing with a continuous…

Causal inference for extreme events has many potential applications in fields such as climate science, medicine and economics. We study the extremal quantile treatment effect of a binary treatment on a continuous, heavy-tailed outcome.…

Extreme values and the tail behavior of probability distributions are essential for quantifying and mitigating risk in complex systems of all kinds. In multivariate settings, accounting for correlations is crucial. Although extreme value…

Inference over tails is usually performed by fitting an appropriate limiting distribution over observations that exceed a fixed threshold. However, the choice of such threshold is critical and can affect the inferential results. Extreme…

We introduce a novel method for estimating and conducting inference about extreme quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in the presence of endogeneity. Our approach is applicable to a broad range of empirical research designs, including…

Extreme value theory provides rigorous theory and statistical tools for extrapolation in machine learning, particularly in settings where traditional methods struggle due to data scarcity in the tails. A broad range of tasks benefit from…

We give an overview of several aspects arising in the statistical analysis of extreme risks with actuarial applications in view. In particular it is demonstrated that empirical process theory is a very powerful tool, both for the asymptotic…

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

For counterfactual policy evaluation, it is important to ensure that treatment parameters are relevant to policies in question. This is especially challenging under unobserved heterogeneity, as is well featured in the definition of the…

Extreme quantile treatment effects (eQTEs) measure the causal impact of a treatment on the tails of an outcome distribution and are central for studying rare, high-impact events. Standard QTE methods often fail in extreme regimes due to…

The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…

Extreme value applications commonly employ regression techniques to capture cross-sectional heterogeneity or time-variation in the data. Estimation of the parameters of an extreme value regression model is notoriously challenging due to the…

The estimation of conditional quantiles at extreme tails is of great interest in numerous applications. Various methods that integrate regression analysis with an extrapolation strategy derived from extreme value theory have been proposed…

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

In this work, we summarize the state-of-the-art methods in causal inference for extremes. In a non-exhaustive way, we start by describing an extremal approach to quantile treatment effect where the treatment has an impact on the tail of the…

We examine statistical pictures of violent conflicts over the last 2000 years, finding techniques for dealing with incompleteness and unreliability of historical data. We introduce a novel approach to apply extreme value theory to…

Estimation and evaluation of individualized treatment rules have been studied extensively, but real-world treatment resource constraints have received limited attention in existing methods. We investigate a setting in which treatment is…

We develop new semiparametric methods for estimating treatment effects. We focus on settings where the outcome distributions may be thick tailed, where treatment effects may be small, where sample sizes are large and where assignment is…