相关论文: Estimation of incidence from aggregated current st…

Since the beginning of the epidemic, daily reports of CoViD-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths from around the world have been publicly available. This paper describes methods to characterize broad features of the spread of the disease,…

This study proposes a nonhomogeneous birth--death model which captures the dynamics of a directly transmitted infectious disease. Our model accounts for an important aspect of observed epidemic data in which only symptomatic infecteds are…

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative condition characterized by diverse progression rates among individuals, with changes in cortical thickness (CTh) closely linked to its progression. Accurately forecasting CTh trajectories can…

Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is…

Analysing age-specific mortality, fertility, and migration patterns is a crucial task in demography with significant policy relevance. In practice, such analysis is challenging when studying a large number of subpopulations, due to small…

Progressive diseases worsen over time and are characterised by monotonic change in features that track disease progression. Here we connect ideas from two formerly separate methodologies -- event-based and hidden Markov modelling -- to…

In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…

Income inequality measures are often used as an indication of economic health. How to obtain reliable confidence intervals for these measures based on sampled data has been studied extensively in recent years. To preserve confidentiality,…

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

Intensive longitudinal data, characterized by frequent measurements across numerous time points, are increasingly common due to advances in wearable devices and mobile health technologies. We consider evaluating causal mediation pathways…

The systematic collection of longitudinal data is very common in practice, making mixed models widely used. Most developments around these models focus on modeling the mean trajectory of repeated measurements, typically under the assumption…

Modeling the dynamics of probability distributions from time-dependent data samples is a fundamental problem in many fields, including digital health. The goal is to analyze how the distribution of a biomarker, such as glucose, changes over…

The brain-age gap is one of the most investigated risk markers for brain changes across disorders. While the field is progressing towards large-scale models, recently incorporating uncertainty estimates, no model to date provides the…

Efficient estimation of population size from dependent dual-record system (DRS) remains a statistical challenge in capture-recapture type experiment. Owing to the nonidentifiability of the suitable Time-Behavioral Response Variation model…

This chapter surveys univariate and multivariate methods for infectious disease outbreak detection. The setting considered is a prospective one: data arrives sequentially as part of the surveillance systems maintained by public health…

Influenza remains a significant burden on health systems. Effective responses rely on the timely understanding of the magnitude and the evolution of an outbreak. For monitoring purposes, data on severe cases of influenza in England are…

To infer a diffusion network based on observations from historical diffusion processes, existing approaches assume that observation data contain exact occurrence time of each node infection, or at least the eventual infection statuses of…

Objective Alzheimer disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia, a syndrome characterized by cognitive impairment severe enough to interfere with activities of daily life. We aimed to conduct a systematic literature review (SLR) of…

There has been growing interest on forecasting mortality. In this article, we propose a novel dynamic Bayesian approach for modeling and forecasting the age-at-death distribution, focusing on a three-components mixture of a Dirac mass, a…

Renewal equations are a popular approach used in modelling the number of new infections, i.e., incidence, in an outbreak. We develop a stochastic model of an outbreak based on a time-varying variant of the Crump-Mode-Jagers branching…