相关论文: Incorporating Expert Opinion on Observable Quantit…

During the last decade Levy processes with jumps have received increasing popularity for modelling market behaviour for both derviative pricing and risk management purposes. Chan et al. (2009) introduced the use of empirical likelihood…

Given a universe of discourse X-a domain of possible outcomes-an experiment may consist of selecting one of its elements, subject to the operation of chance, or of observing the elements, subject to imprecision. A priori uncertainty about…

A fundamental challenge in observational causal inference is that assumptions about unconfoundedness are not testable from data. Assessing sensitivity to such assumptions is therefore important in practice. Unfortunately, some existing…

We present a new method for probabilistic elicitation of expert knowledge using binary responses of human experts assessing simulated data from a statistical model, where the parameters are subject to uncertainty. The binary responses…

Instrumental variables regression is a tool that is commonly used in the analysis of observational data. The instrumental variables are used to make causal inference about the effect of a certain exposure in the presence of unmeasured…

The use of a hypothetical generative model was been suggested for causal analysis of observational data. The very assumption of a particular model is a commitment to a certain set of variables and therefore to a certain set of possible…

Randomized experiments have long been the gold standard for scientists seeking to learn about cause and effect. When randomized experiments are infeasible, scientists often resort to observational studies, which are widely available and…

Consider a regression or some regression-type model for a certain response variable where the linear predictor includes an ordered factor among the explanatory variables. The inclusion of a factor of this type can take place is a few…

Scoring rules for eliciting expert predictions of random variables are usually developed assuming that experts derive utility only from the quality of their predictions (e.g., score awarded by the rule, or payoff in a prediction market). We…

Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks such as Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) contain unknown parameters like the reaction rate constants and the initial concentrations of the compounds. The large number of parameters as…

Inference for the parameters indexing generalised linear models is routinely based on the assumption that the model is correct and a priori specified. This is unsatisfactory because the chosen model is usually the result of a data-adaptive…

Using observation data to estimate unknown parameters in computational models is broadly important. This task is often challenging because solutions are non-unique due to the complexity of the model and limited observation data. However,…

This paper concerns the estimation of sums of functions of observable and unobservable variables. Lower bounds for the asymptotic variance and a convolution theorem are derived in general finite- and infinite-dimensional models. An explicit…

Embedding is a common technique for analyzing multi-dimensional data. However, the embedding projection cannot always form significant and interpretable visual structures that foreshadow underlying data patterns. We propose an approach that…

Forensic experts use specialized training and knowledge to enable other members of the judicial system to make better informed and more just decisions. Factfinders, in particular, are tasked with judging how much weight to give to experts'…

In this study, we introduce a new approach to statistical decision theory. Without using a loss function, we select good decision rules to choice between two hypotheses. We call them "experts". They are globally unbiased but also…

A new class of functions, called the `Information sensitivity functions' (ISFs), which quantify the information gain about the parameters through the measurements/observables of a dynamical system are presented. These functions can be…

Most analyses of randomised trials with incomplete outcomes make untestable assumptions and should therefore be subjected to sensitivity analyses. However, methods for sensitivity analyses are not widely used. We propose a mean score…

Statistics is sometimes described as the science of reasoning under uncertainty. Statistical models provide one view of this uncertainty, but what is frequently neglected is the 'invisible' portion of uncertainty: that assumed not to exist…

Increasing digitalization enables the use of machine learning methods for analyzing and optimizing manufacturing processes. A main application of machine learning is the construction of quality prediction models, which can be used, among…