相关论文: Incorporating Expert Opinion on Observable Quantit…

We present methods for estimating loss-based measures of the performance of a prediction model in a target population that differs from the source population in which the model was developed, in settings where outcome and covariate data are…

The paper introduces a generalization for known probabilistic models such as log-linear and graphical models, called here multiplicative models. These models, that express probabilities via product of parameters are shown to capture…

When data contains measurement errors, it is necessary to make assumptions relating the observed, erroneous data to the unobserved true phenomena of interest. These assumptions should be justifiable on substantive grounds, but are often…

A predictive model makes outcome predictions based on some given features, i.e., it estimates the conditional probability of the outcome given a feature vector. In general, a predictive model cannot estimate the causal effect of a feature…

Foundation models, and in particular large language models, can generate highly informative responses, prompting growing interest in using these ''synthetic'' outputs as data in empirical research and decision-making. This paper introduces…

We consider the problem of decision-making with side information and unbounded loss functions. Inspired by probably approximately correct learning model, we use a slightly different model that incorporates the notion of side information in…

Classical semiparametric inference with missing outcome data is not robust to contamination of the observed data and a single observation can have arbitrarily large influence on estimation of a parameter of interest. This sensitivity is…

A novel information-theoretic approach is proposed to assess the global practical identifiability of Bayesian statistical models. Based on the concept of conditional mutual information, an estimate of information gained for each model…

A statistical estimation model with qualitative input provides a mechanism to fuse human intuition in the form of qualitative information into a statistical model. We investigate the statistical properties of this model and devise a…

Due to flourish of the Web 2.0, web opinion sources are rapidly emerging containing precious information useful for both customers and manufactures. Recently, feature based opinion mining techniques are gaining momentum in which customer…

Patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures are increasingly collected as a means of measuring healthcare quality and value. The capability to predict such measures enables patient-provider shared decision making and the delivery of…

Many real-world decision processes are modeled by optimization problems whose defining parameters are unknown and must be inferred from observable data. The Predict-Then-Optimize framework uses machine learning models to predict unknown…

This article considers a linear model in a high dimensional data scenario. We propose a process which uses multiple loss functions both to select relevant predictors and to estimate parameters, and study its asymptotic properties. Variable…

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

A mixture of experts models the conditional density of a response variable using a mixture of regression models with covariate-dependent mixture weights. We extend the finite mixture of experts model by allowing the parameters in both the…

In many application settings, the data have missing entries which make analysis challenging. An abundant literature addresses missing values in an inferential framework: estimating parameters and their variance from incomplete tables. Here,…

In the era of "big data", it is becoming more of a challenge to not only build state-of-the-art predictive models, but also gain an understanding of what's really going on in the data. For example, it is often of interest to know which, if…

When complex Bayesian models exhibit implausible behaviour, one solution is to assemble available information into an informative prior. Challenges arise as prior information is often only available for the observable quantity, or some…

Reliable predictions from systems biology models require knowing whether parameters can be estimated from available data, and with what certainty. Identifiability analysis reveals whether parameters are learnable in principle (structural…

Collaborative filtering analyzes user preferences for items (e.g., books, movies, restaurants, academic papers) by exploiting the similarity patterns across users. In implicit feedback settings, all the items, including the ones that a user…