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The field of extreme value statistics is concerned with modeling and predicting rare events. In a H\"usler-Reiss graphical model, a graph represents extremal conditional independence (CI) relations between random variables. These models are…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-03 Carlos Améndola , Jane Ivy Coons , Alexandros Grosdos , Frank Röttger

We study extremal conditional independence for H\"{u}sler-Reiss distributions, which is a parametric subclass of multivariate Pareto distributions. As the main contribution, we introduce two set functions, i.e.~functions which assign a…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-01-30 Karel Devriendt , Ignacio Echave-Sustaeta Rodríguez , Frank Röttger

Extreme value theory for univariate and low-dimensional observations has been explored in considerable detail, but the field is still in an early stage regarding high-dimensional settings. This paper focuses on H\"usler-Reiss models, a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Johannes Lederer , Marco Oesting

Positive dependence is present in many real world data sets and has appealing stochastic properties that can be exploited in statistical modeling and in estimation. In particular, the notion of multivariate total positivity of order 2 ($…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-06-16 Frank Röttger , Sebastian Engelke , Piotr Zwiernik

A Markov tree is a probabilistic graphical model for a random vector indexed by the nodes of an undirected tree encoding conditional independence relations between variables. One possible limit distribution of partial maxima of samples from…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-01-19 Stefka Asenova , Gildas Mazo , Johan Segers

Graphical models in extremes have emerged as a diverse and quickly expanding research area in extremal dependence modeling. They allow for parsimonious statistical methodology and are particularly suited for enforcing sparsity in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-06 Sebastian Engelke , Manuel Hentschel , Michaël Lalancette , Frank Röttger

The angular measure on the unit sphere characterizes the first-order dependence structure of the components of a random vector in extreme regions and is defined in terms of standardized margins. Its statistical recovery is an important step…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-11-20 Stéphane Lhaut , Johan Segers

We introduce the extremal range, a local statistic for studying the spatial extent of extreme events in random fields on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Conditioned on exceedance of a high threshold at a location $s$, the extremal range at $s$ is the…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-11-06 Ryan Cotsakis , Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Opitz

Extremal graphical models encode the conditional independence structure of multivariate extremes. Key statistics for learning extremal graphical structures are empirical extremal variograms, for which we prove non-asymptotic concentration…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-11-05 Sebastian Engelke , Michaël Lalancette , Stanislav Volgushev

We introduce the concept of geometric extremal graphical models, which are defined through the gauge function of the limit set obtained from suitably scaled random vectors in light-tailed margins. For block graphs, we prove results relating…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-01-05 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jennifer Wadsworth

This article proposes a generalized notion of extreme multivariate dependence between two random vectors which relies on the extremality of the cross-covariance matrix between these two vectors. Using a partial ordering on the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-02-10 Damien Bosc , Alfred Galichon

The severity of multivariate extreme events is driven by the dependence between the largest marginal observations. The H\"usler-Reiss distribution is a versatile model for this extremal dependence, and it is usually parameterized by a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-16 Manuel Hentschel , Sebastian Engelke , Johan Segers

Extremal graphical models are sparse statistical models for multivariate extreme events. The underlying graph encodes conditional independencies and enables a visual interpretation of the complex extremal dependence structure. For the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-18 Sebastian Engelke , Stanislav Volgushev

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-03-12 Enkelejd Hashorva , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

The notion of multivariate total positivity has proved to be useful in finance and psychology but may be too restrictive in other applications. In this paper we propose a concept of local association, where highly connected components in a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-10 Steffen Lauritzen , Piotr Zwiernik

Conditional independence, graphical models and sparsity are key notions for parsimonious statistical models and for understanding the structural relationships in the data. The theory of multivariate and spatial extremes describes the risk…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-11-14 Sebastian Engelke , Adrien S. Hitz

Recent developments in extreme value statistics have established the so-called geometric approach as a powerful modelling tool for multivariate extremes. We tailor these methods to the case of spatial modelling and examine their efficacy at…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-20 Lydia Kakampakou , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

The extremal characteristics of random structures, including trees, graphs, and networks, are discussed. A statistical physics approach is employed in which extremal properties are obtained through suitably defined rate equations. A variety…

统计力学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky , S. Redner

Modelling multivariate extreme events is essential when extrapolating beyond the range of observed data. Parametric models that are suitable for real-world extremes must be flexible -- particularly in their ability to capture asymmetric…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-05 Pavel Krupskii , Boris Béranger

In classical extreme value theory probabilities of extreme events are estimated assuming all the components of a random vector to be in a domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. In contrast, the conditional extreme value…

统计理论 · 数学 2011-08-30 Bikramjit Das , Sidney I. Resnick
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