相关论文: Early-Phase Local-Area Model for Pandemics Using L…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
Many important questions in infectious disease epidemiology involve the effects of covariates (e.g., age or vaccination status) on infectiousness and susceptibility, which can be measured in studies of transmission in households or other…
Infectious epidemics can be simulated by employing dynamical processes as interactions on network structures. Here, we introduce techniques from the Multi-Agent System (MAS) domain in order to account for individual level characterization…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has necessitated mitigation efforts around the world. We use only reported deaths in the two weeks after the first death to determine infection parameters, in order to make predictions of hidden variables such as the…
Network-based models of epidemic spread have become increasingly popular in recent decades. Despite a rich foundation of such models, few low-dimensional systems for modeling SIS-type diseases have been proposed that manage to capture the…
In this work, the spread of a contagious disease on a society where the individuals may take precautions is modeled. The primary assumption is that the infected individuals transmit the infection to the susceptible members of the community…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief…
We investigate the information-theoretical limits of inference tasks in epidemic spreading on graphs in the thermodynamic limit. The typical inference tasks consist in computing observables of the posterior distribution of the epidemic…
The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold depends on the natural history…
It has long been known that epidemics can travel along communication lines, such as roads. In the current COVID-19 epidemic, it has been observed that major roads have enhanced its propagation in Italy. We propose a new simple model of…
Infectious disease superspreading caused by heterogeneity in contact behavior has been observed to be an important determinant of epidemic dynamics and size in both empirical and theoretical settings. However, it has also been observed that…
can evolve simultaneously. For the information-driven adaptive process, susceptible (infected) individuals who have abilities to recognize the disease would break the links of their infected (susceptible) neighbors to prevent the epidemic…
We used a spatially explicit agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission combined with spatially fine-grained COVID-19 observation data from Public Health Scotland to investigate the initial rise of the Omicron (BA.1) variant of concern.…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
We study a resource allocation problem for containing an infectious disease in a metapopulation subject to resource uncertainty. We propose a two-stage model where the policy maker seeks to allocate resources in both stages where the second…
Capturing the structured mixing within a population is key to the reliable projection of infectious disease dynamics and hence informed control. Both heterogeneity in the number of contacts and age-structured mixing have been repeatedly…
Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…