相关论文: Why Does GDP Move Before G? It's all in the Measur…

Considered an important macroeconomic indicator, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on Manufacturing generally assumes that PMI announcements will produce an impact on stock markets. International experience suggests that stock markets…

We study the impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market volatility. We jointly analyze three different structural oil market shocks (i.e., aggregate demand, oil supply, and oil-specific demand shocks) and stock market volatility…

Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc…

We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP…

We estimate the relationship between GDP per capita growth and the growth rate of the national savings rate using a panel of 130 countries over the period 1960-2017. We find that GDP per capita growth increases (decreases) the growth rate…

Standard policy gradients weight each sampled action by advantage alone, regardless of how likely that action was under the current policy. This creates two pathologies: within a single decision context (e.g. one image or prompt), a rare…

This study examines the relationship between GDP growth and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) across developed economies (G7, EU-15, OECD) and emerging markets (BRICS). We integrate Random Forest machine learning (non-linear regression)…

The energy trade is an important pillar of each country's development, making up for the imbalance in the production and consumption of fossil fuels. Geopolitical risks affect the energy trade of various countries to a certain extent, but…

In economic literature, economic complexity is typically approximated on the basis of an economy's gross export structure. However, in times of ever increasingly integrated global value chains, gross exports may convey an inaccurate image…

The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…

This article summarizes recent research in financial economics about why information, such as earnings announcements, moves stock prices. The article does not presume any prior exposure to finance beyond what you might read in newspapers.

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the…

Space weather events pose a growing threat to modern economies, yet their macroeconomic consequences still remain underexplored. This study presents the first dedicated economic assessment of geomagnetic storm impacts on Aotearoa New…

We study the relationship between foreign debt and GDP growth using a panel dataset of 50 countries from 1997 to 2015. We find that economic growth correlates positively with foreign debt and that the relationship is causal in nature by…

Communication is essential for coordination in \emph{cooperative} multi-agent reinforcement learning under partial observability, yet \emph{cross-timestep} delays cause messages to arrive multiple timesteps after generation, inducing…

Real-world attacks can be interpreted as the result of competitive interactions between networks, ranging from predator-prey networks to networks of countries under economic sanctions. Although the purpose of an attack is to damage a target…

The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance,…

The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all…

Recent strides in economic complexity have shown that the future economic development of nations can be predicted with a single "economic fitness" variable, which captures countries' competitiveness in international trade. The predictions…

The problem of communication and state estimation is considered in the context of channels with actiondependent states. Given the message to be communicated, the transmitter chooses an action sequence that affects the formation of the…