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The worries expressed by Alan Greenspan that the long run economic growth of the United States will fade away due to increasing burden of entitlements motivated us to empirically investigate the impact of entitlements of key macroeconomic…
I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally…
The decision process requires information about the present state of the system, but in economy acquiring data and processing them is an expensive and time consuming process. Therefore the state of the system is measured and announced at…
This paper examines how adverse supply-side shocks in domestic input markets influence firms' vertical outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) decisions. While the theoretical basis for cost-driven OFDI is well established, empirical…
Trade policy uncertainty has become a significant feature of today's global economy. While its impact on free trade is evident, its microeconomic effects remain open to debate. This study explores the influence of trade policy uncertainty…
We introduce a parsimonious multi-sector model of international production and use it to study the impact of a disruption in the production of some goods propagates to other goods and consumers, and how that impact depends on the goods'…
This paper examines the relationship between changes in the cost of imported inputs and export performance using a novel dataset from Argentina which identifies domestic firms' network of foreign suppliers. To guide my empirical strategy, I…
COVID-19 has impacted the economy of almost every country in the world. Of particular interest are the responses of the economic indicators of developing nations (such as BRICS) to the COVID-19 shock. As an extension to our earlier work on…
We study the effects on economic activity of a pure temporary change in government debt and the relationship between the debt multiplier and the level of debt in an overlapping generations framework. The debt multiplier is positive but…
There is bountiful evidence that political uncertainty stemming from presidential elections or doubt about the direction of future policy make financial markets significantly volatile, especially in proximity to close elections or elections…
In a conventional contextual multi-armed bandit problem, the feedback (or reward) is immediately observable after an action. Nevertheless, delayed feedback arises in numerous real-life situations and is particularly crucial in…
This study investigates the causal relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and wage levels, aiming to provide a quantified assessment of the impact. While no significant evidence is found for long-term effects, the analysis reveals a…
Policy makers often make decisions based on parameters such as GDP, unemployment rate, industrial output, etc. The primary methods to obtain or even estimate such information are resource intensive and time consuming. In order to make…
The stock market is heavily influenced by investor sentiment, which can drive buying or selling behavior. Sentiment analysis helps in gauging the overall sentiment of market participants towards a particular stock or the market as a whole.…
In games with incomplete and ambiguous information, rational behavior depends not only on fundamental ambiguity (ambiguity about states) but also on strategic ambiguity (ambiguity about others' actions), which further induces hierarchies of…
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to post-WWII…
Along with the increasing frequency and severity of cyber incidents, understanding their economic implications is paramount. In this context, listed firms' reactions to cyber incidents are compelling to study since they (i) are a good proxy…
Applying any strategy requires some knowledge about the past state of the system. Unfortunately in the case of economy collecting information is a difficult, expensive and time consuming process. Therefore the information about the system…
Jarring events inspiring reflection, known as ``shocks" in the literature, are the motive force in explaining changes in employee embeddedness and retention within the unfolding model of labor turnover. Substantial research effort has…
The COVID 19 pandemic and ongoing political and regional conflicts have a highly detrimental impact on the global supply chain, causing significant delays in logistics operations and international shipments. One of the most pressing…