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The paper proposes a new approach to model risk measurement based on the Wasserstein distance between two probability measures. It formulates the theoretical motivation resulting from the interpretation of fictitious adversary of robust…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2019-03-05 Yu Feng , Erik Schlögl

A wide array of machine learning problems are formulated as the minimization of the expectation of a convex loss function on some parameter space. Since the probability distribution of the data of interest is usually unknown, it is is often…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2019-05-27 Emilie Chouzenoux , Henri Gérard , Jean-Christophe Pesquet

Distributionally-robust optimization is often studied for a fixed set of distributions rather than time-varying distributions that can drift significantly over time (which is, for instance, the case in finance and sociology due to…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2020-10-01 Iman Shames , Farhad Farokhi

This paper considers the problem of regression over distributions, which is becoming increasingly important in machine learning. Existing approaches often ignore the geometry of the probability space or are computationally expensive. To…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-31 Maksim Maslov , Alexander Kugaevskikh , Matthew Ivanov

We establish sharp upper and lower bounds for distortion risk metrics under distributional uncertainty. The uncertainty sets are characterized by four key features of the underlying distribution: mean, variance, unimodality, and Wasserstein…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-11-13 Peng Liu , Steven Vanduffel , Yi Xia

Distributionally robust chance constrained programs minimize a deterministic cost function subject to the satisfaction of one or more safety conditions with high probability, given that the probability distribution of the uncertain problem…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2022-11-22 Zhi Chen , Daniel Kuhn , Wolfram Wiesemann

We present the first minimax risk bounds for estimators of the spectral measure in multivariate linear factor models, where observations are linear combinations of regularly varying latent factors. Non-asymptotic convergence rates are…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-11-12 Xuhui Zhang , Jose Blanchet , Youssef Marzouk , Viet Anh Nguyen , Sven Wang

The question of optimally approximating an arbitrary probability measure in the Wasserstein distance by a discrete one with uniform weights is considered. Estimates are obtained for the optimal approximation distance, with an explicit rate…

概率论 · 数学 2026-04-14 Benjamin Seeger

The robustness of risk measures to changes in underlying loss distributions (distributional uncertainty) is of crucial importance in making well-informed decisions. In this paper, we quantify, for the class of distortion risk measures with…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2023-03-14 Carole Bernard , Silvana M. Pesenti , Steven Vanduffel

The paper investigates the robust distortion risk measure with linear penalty function under distribution uncertainty. The distribution uncertainties are characterized by predetermined moment conditions or constraints on the Wasserstein…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-03-21 Yuxin Du , Dejian Tian , Hui Zhang

In this paper, by proposing two new kinds of distributional uncertainty sets, we explore robustness of distortion risk measures against distributional uncertainty. To be precise, we first consider a distributional uncertainty set which is…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-08-15 Xiangyu Han , Yijun Hu , Ran Wang , Linxiao Wei

This paper presents a unified approach based on Wasserstein distance to derive concentration bounds for empirical estimates for two broad classes of risk measures defined in the paper. The classes of risk measures introduced include as…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-05-11 Prashanth L. A. , Sanjay P. Bhat

We study nonparametric density estimation problems where error is measured in the Wasserstein distance, a metric on probability distributions popular in many areas of statistics and machine learning. We give the first minimax-optimal rates…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-04-30 Jonathan Niles-Weed , Quentin Berthet

A general framework with a series of different methods is proposed to improve the estimate of convex function (or functional) values when only noisy observations of the true input are available. Technically, our methods catch the bias…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-15 Chao Ma , Lexing Ying

We develop and analyze $M$-estimation methods for divergence functionals and the likelihood ratios of two probability distributions. Our method is based on a non-asymptotic variational characterization of $f$-divergences, which allows the…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-11-18 XuanLong Nguyen , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan

Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization (WDRO) strengthens statistical learning under model uncertainty by minimizing the local worst-case risk within a prescribed ambiguity set. Although WDRO has been extensively studied in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-12 Changyu Liu , Yuling Jiao , Junhui Wang , Jian Huang

In this paper, we refine and generalize closed forms for worst-case law invariant convex risk measures with uncertainty sets based on: i) closed balls under $p$-norms and Wasserstein distance; and ii) moment constraints involving mean and…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-07-30 Marcelo Righi , Fernanda Müller

In this article we present a general framework for non-concave robust stochastic control problems under model uncertainty in a discrete time finite horizon setting. Our framework allows to consider a variety of different path-dependent…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-05-06 Ariel Neufeld , Julian Sester

Obtaining guarantees on the convergence of the minimizers of empirical risks to the ones of the true risk is a fundamental matter in statistical learning. Instead of deriving guarantees on the usual estimation error, the goal of this paper…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-09-12 Paul Escande

Randomness in financial markets requires modern and robust multivariate models of risk measures. This paper proposes a new approach for modeling multivariate risk measures under Wasserstein barycenters of probability measures supported on…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-08-14 M. Andrea Arias-Serna , Jean-Michel Loubes , Francisco J. Caro-Lopera
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