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This paper predicting Trump victory has been submitted before the election and revised after, allowing to add a Foreword and Note Added in Revision to discuss in details the causes of the failure of the prediction. In 2016, Trump was…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2021-03-17 Serge Galam

Do American presidents speak discernibly different from each other? If so, in what ways? And are these differences confined to any single medium of communication? To investigate these questions, this paper introduces a novel metric of…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-07-25 Karen Zhou , Alexander A. Meitus , Milo Chase , Grace Wang , Anne Mykland , William Howell , Chenhao Tan

With the proliferation of social media over the last decade, determining people's attitude with respect to a specific topic, document, interaction or events has fueled research interest in natural language processing and introduced a new…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2017-10-09 Monireh Ebrahimi , Amir Hossein Yazdavar , Amit Sheth

In studies on election result prediction based on Twitter data, estimates were made using one of the factors such as the number of positive, negative, and neutral tweets posted about parties, the effect size of these tweets (the number of…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2021-01-26 Ibrahim Sabuncu , Mehmet Ali Balci , Omer Akguller

There is a widespread belief that the tone of US political language has become more negative recently, in particular when Donald Trump entered politics. At the same time, there is disagreement as to whether Trump changed or merely continued…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-12-31 Jonathan Külz , Andreas Spitz , Ahmad Abu-Akel , Stephan Günnemann , Robert West

We examine how six search engines filter and rank information in relation to the queries on the U.S. 2020 presidential primary elections under the default - that is nonpersonalized - conditions. For that, we utilize an algorithmic auditing…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2021-05-04 Aleksandra Urman , Mykola Makhortykh , Roberto Ulloa

U.S. Presidential Election forecasting has been a research interest for several decades. Currently, election prediction consists of two main approaches: traditional models that incorporate economic data and poll surveys, and models that…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2023-12-12 Guocheng Feng , Huaiyu Cai , Kaihao Chen , Zhijian Li

The 2020 US Elections have been, more than ever before, characterized by social media campaigns and mutual accusations. We investigate in this paper if this manifests also in online communication of the supporters of the candidates Biden…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2021-03-03 Lara Grimminger , Roman Klinger

US Presidential Election 2012 has been a very tight race between the two key candidates. There were intense battle between the two key candidates. The election reflects the sentiment of the electorate towards the achievements of the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2012-11-13 Murphy Choy , Michelle Cheong , Ma Nang Laik , Koo Ping Shung

The integrity of democratic political discourse is at the core to guarantee free and fair elections. With social media often dictating the tones and trends of politics-related discussion, it is of paramount important to be able to study…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2023-04-19 Emily Chen , Ashok Deb , Emilio Ferrara

One major sub-domain in the subject of polling public opinion with social media data is electoral prediction. Electoral prediction utilizing social media data potentially would significantly affect campaign strategies, complementing…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2021-07-21 Michael Caballero

Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different campaigns…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2023-04-05 Taichi Murayama , Akira Matsui , Kunihiro Miyazaki , Yasuko Matsubara , Yasushi Sakurai

Social media is commonly used by the public during election campaigns to express their opinions regarding different issues. Among various social media channels, Twitter provides an efficient platform for researchers and politicians to…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2022-07-15 Amir Karami , Spring B. Clark , Anderson Mackenzie , Dorathea Lee , Michael Zhu , Hannah R. Boyajieff , Bailey Goldschmidt

The 2020 US elections news coverage was extensive, with new pieces of information generated rapidly. This evolving scenario presented an opportunity to study the performance of search engines in a context in which they had to quickly…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2023-04-06 Roberto Ulloa , Mykola Makhortykh , Aleksandra Urman , Juhi Kulshrestha

Information is crucial to the function of a democratic society where well-informed citizens can make rational political decisions. While in the past political entities were primarily utilizing newspaper and later television to inform the…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2020-09-22 Aaron Brookhouse , Tyler Derr , Hamid Karimi , H. Russell Bernard , Jiliang Tang

Polls posted on social media have emerged in recent years as an important tool for estimating public opinion, e.g., to gauge public support for business decisions and political candidates in national elections. Here, we examine nearly two…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2024-06-06 Stephen Scarano , Vijayalakshmi Vasudevan , Chhandak Bagchi , Mattia Samory , JungHwan Yang , Przemyslaw A. Grabowicz

Campaign analysis is an integral part of American democracy and has many complexities in its dynamics. Experts have long sought to understand these dynamics and evaluate campaign performance using a variety of techniques. We explore…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-03-25 Moeen Mostafavi , Maria Phillips , Yichen Jiang , Michael D. Porter , Paul Freedman

Sentiment analysis of textual content has become a well-established solution for analyzing social media data. However, with the rise of images and videos as primary modes of expression, more information on social media is conveyed visually.…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2025-03-27 Chiyu Wei , Sean Noh , Ho-Chun Herbert Chang

The presidential elections in the United States on 3 November 2020 have caused extensive discussions on social media. A part of the content on US elections is organic, coming from users discussing their opinions of the candidates, political…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2023-05-29 Alexander Shevtsov , Maria Oikonomidou , Despoina Antonakaki , Polyvios Pratikakis , Sotiris Ioannidis

This paper documents our release of a large-scale data collection of TikTok posts related to the upcoming 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. Our current data comprises 1.8 million videos published between November 1, 2023, and May 26, 2024.…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2024-07-04 Gabriela Pinto , Charles Bickham , Tanishq Salkar , Luca Luceri , Emilio Ferrara
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