相关论文: Emergence of universal scaling in weather extreme …

Scale invariance property in the global geometry of Earth may lead to a coupled interactive behaviour between various components of the climate system. One of the most interesting correlations exists between spatial statistics of the global…

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…

Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…

We theoretically study long-term trends in the statistics of record-breaking daily temperatures and validate these predictions using Monte Carlo simulations and data from the city of Philadelphia, for which 126 years of daily temperature…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

Fluctuations of global additive quantities, like total energy or magnetization for instance, can in principle be described by statistics of sums of (possibly correlated) random variables. Yet, it turns out that extreme values (the largest…

The apparantly irregular (unpredictable) space-time fluctuations in atmospheric flows ranging from climate (thousands of kilometers - years) to turbulence (millimeters - seconds) exhibit the universal symmetry of self-similarity.…

Extreme value statistics, or extreme statistics for short, refers to the statistics that characterizes rare events of either unusually high or low intensity: climate disasters like floods following extremely intense rains are among the…

One of the goals of climate science is to characterize the statistics of extreme and potentially dangerous events in the present and future climate. Extreme events like heat waves, droughts, or floods due to persisting rains are…

We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation…

We study the scaling behaviors in the wind velocity time series collected at the atmospheric surface layer and compare them with two commonly used cascade models, the truncated stable distribution and the log-normal model. Results show that…

Due to the unitary evolution, quantum walks display different dynamical features from that of classical random walks. In contrast to this expectation, in this work, we show that extreme events can arise in unitary dynamics and its…

Despite the importance of quantifying how the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation will change with warming, we lack tools to objectively analyze the storm-scale outputs of modern climate models. To address this gap, we develop an…

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…

A review of the statistical properties of earthquakes is provided, centered mainly in the work of the author (apologies for that). We explain the scaling law for the recurrence-time distributions, its universal character for stationary…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Waiting-time statistics are generated from the Olami-Feder-Christensen model and shown to mimic some aspects of real seismicity. Preliminary analysis of the model data implies a recently proposed universal scaling law for the distribution…

Extreme events are unusual and rare large-amplitude fluctuations that occur can unexpectedly in nonlinear dynamical systems. Events above the extreme event threshold of the probability distribution of a nonlinear process characterize…

We investigate extreme value theory for physical systems with a global conservation law which describe renewal processes, mass transport models and long-range interacting spin models. As shown previously, a special feature is that the…

Turbulence is a complex spatial and temporal structure created by the strong non-linear dynamics of fluid flows at high Reynolds numbers. Despite being an ubiquitous phenomenon that has been studied for centuries, a full understanding of…