相关论文: Can a latent Hawkes process be used for epidemiolo…

Infectious diseases that incorporate pre-symptomatic transmission are challenging to monitor, model, predict and contain. We address this scenario by studying a variant of a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model on…

We consider the problem of inference for the states and parameters of a continuous-time multitype branching process from partially observed time series data. Exact inference for this class of models, typically using sequential Monte Carlo,…

Driven by the recent surge in neural-inspired modeling, point processes have gained significant traction in systems and control. While the Hawkes process is the standard model for characterizing random event sequences with memory,…

Compartmental models are used in epidemiology to capture the evolution of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 in a population by assigning members of it to compartments with labels such as susceptible, infected, and recovered. In a…

Nowadays, due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic modelling is experiencing a constantly growing interest from researchers of heterogeneous fields of study. Indeed, the vast literature on computational epidemiology offers solid grounds for…

Effective epidemic modeling is essential for managing public health crises, requiring robust methods to predict disease spread and optimize resource allocation. This study introduces a novel deep learning framework that advances time series…

We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…

Across a wide variety of applications, the self-exciting Hawkes process has been used to model phenomena in which the history of events influences future occurrences. However, there may be many situations in which the past events only…

Hawkes Processes capture self-excitation and mutual-excitation between events when the arrival of an event makes future events more likely to happen. Identification of such temporal covariance can reveal the underlying structure to better…

Forecasting the degradation of coated materials has long been a topic of critical interest in engineering, as it has enormous implications for both system maintenance and sustainable material use. Material degradation is affected by many…

We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a…

Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 to almost every part of the globe, huge volumes of data and case studies have been made available, providing researchers with a unique opportunity to find trends and make discoveries like never…

Many networks have event-driven dynamics (such as communication, social media and criminal networks), where the mean rate of the events occurring at a node in the network changes according to the occurrence of other events in the network.…

Faced with the 2020 SARS-CoV2 epidemic, public health officials have been seeking models that could be used to predict not only the number of new cases but also the levels of hospitalisation, critical care and deaths. In this paper we…

The COVID-19 pandemic has emphasized the need for a robust understanding of epidemic models. Current models of epidemics are classified as either mechanistic or non-mechanistic: mechanistic models make explicit assumptions on the dynamics…

We provide a predictive analysis of the spread of COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2, using the dataset made publicly available online by the Johns Hopkins University. Our main objective is to provide predictions of the number of infected…

In this research, we provide a mathematical analysis for the novel coronavirus responsible for COVID-19, which continues to be a big source of threat for humanity. Our fractional-order analysis is carried out using a non-singular kernel…

Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late…

The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…

We analyze an epidemic model on a network consisting of susceptible-infected-recovered equations at the nodes coupled by diffusion using a graph Laplacian. We introduce an epidemic criterion and examine different vaccination/containment…