相关论文: Tailoring to the Tails: Risk Measures for Fine-Gra…

Risk measures, which typically evaluate the impact of extreme losses, are highly sensitive to misspecification in the tails. This paper studies a robust optimization approach to combat tail uncertainty by proposing a unifying framework to…

In this work, we establish risk bounds for the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) with both dependent and heavy-tailed data-generating processes. We do so by extending the seminal works of Mendelson [Men15, Men18] on the analysis of ERM with…

Exponential tilting is a technique commonly used in fields such as statistics, probability, information theory, and optimization to create parametric distribution shifts. Despite its prevalence in related fields, tilting has not seen…

Expectiles define the only law-invariant, coherent and elicitable risk measure apart from the expectation. The popularity of expectile-based risk measures is steadily growing and their properties have been studied for independent data, but…

Tail risk protection is in the focus of the financial industry and requires solid mathematical and statistical tools, especially when a trading strategy is derived. Recent hype driven by machine learning (ML) mechanisms has raised the…

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is typically designed to perform well on the average loss, which can result in estimators that are sensitive to outliers, generalize poorly, or treat subgroups unfairly. While many methods aim to address…

In risk management, tail risks are of crucial importance. The quality of a tail model, which is determined by data from an unknown distribution, depends critically on the subset of data used to model the tail. Based on a suitably weighted…

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…

This thesis evaluates most of the extreme mixture models and methods that have appended in the literature and implements them in the context of finance and insurance. The paper also reviews and studies extreme value theory, time series,…

The study of loss function distributions is critical to characterize a model's behaviour on a given machine learning problem. For example, while the quality of a model is commonly determined by the average loss assessed on a testing set,…

We address the overlooked unbiasedness in existing long-tailed classification methods: we find that their overall improvement is mostly attributed to the biased preference of tail over head, as the test distribution is assumed to be…

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization remains challenging when models simultaneously encounter correlation shifts across environments and diversity shifts driven by rare or hard samples. Existing invariant risk minimization (IRM) methods…

For measuring tail risk with scarce extreme events, extreme value analysis is often invoked as the statistical tool to extrapolate to the tail of a distribution. The presence of large datasets benefits tail risk analysis by providing more…

The issue related to the quantification of the tail risk of cryptocurrencies is considered in this paper. The statistical methods used in the study are those concerning recent developments in Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for weakly dependent…

Tail risk measures are fully determined by the distribution of the underlying loss beyond its quantile at a certain level, with Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall and Range Value-at-Risk being prime examples. They are induced by law-based…

This paper attempts to provide a decision-theoretic foundation for the measurement of economic tail risk, which is not only closely related to utility theory but also relevant to statistical model uncertainty. The main result is that the…

Meta learning is a promising paradigm in the era of large models and task distributional robustness has become an indispensable consideration in real-world scenarios. Recent advances have examined the effectiveness of tail task risk…

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is the workhorse of machine learning, whether for classification and regression or for off-policy policy learning, but its model-agnostic guarantees can fail when we use adaptively collected data, such as…

Forecasting rare events in multivariate time-series data is challenging due to severe class imbalance, long-range dependencies, and distributional uncertainty. We introduce EVEREST, a transformer-based architecture for probabilistic…