相关论文: Likelihood-Free Dynamical Survival Analysis Applie…

We present a new method for analyzing stochastic epidemic models under minimal assumptions. The method, dubbed DSA, is based on a simple yet powerful observation, namely that population-level mean-field trajectories described by a system of…

Stochastic compartmental models are prevalent tools for describing disease spread, but inference under these models is challenging for many types of surveillance data when the marginal likelihood function becomes intractable due to missing…

This study advances Early Event Prediction (EEP) in healthcare through Dynamic Survival Analysis (DSA), offering a novel approach by integrating risk localization into alarm policies to enhance clinical event metrics. By adapting and…

Epidemic propagation on networks represents an important departure from traditional massaction models. However, the high-dimensionality of the exact models poses a challenge to both mathematical analysis and parameter inference. By using…

Objective: COVID-19 has spread worldwide and made a huge influence across the world. Modeling the infectious spread situation of COVID-19 is essential to understand the current condition and to formulate intervention measurements.…

Multi-state survival analysis (MSA) uses multi-state models for the analysis of time-to-event data. In medical applications, MSA can provide insights about the complex disease progression in patients. A key challenge in MSA is the accurate…

Survival Analysis (SA) constitutes the default method for time-to-event modeling due to its ability to estimate event probabilities of sparsely occurring events over time. In this work, we show how to improve the training and inference of…

Most existing time-to-event methods focus on either single-event or competing-risks settings, leaving multi-event scenarios relatively underexplored. In many healthcare applications, for example, a patient may experience multiple clinical…

This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…

An interesting inference drawn by some Covid-19 epidemiological models is that there exists a proportion of the population who are not susceptible to infection -- even at the start of the current pandemic. This paper introduces a model of…

This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as…

Motivated by the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic models proposed by Kermack and Mckendrick, we consider a class of stochastic compartmental dynamical systems with a notion of partial ordering among the compartments.…

We introduce a Bayesian sequential data assimilation method for COVID-19 forecasting. It is assumed that suitable transmission, epidemic and observation models are available and previously validated and the transmission and epidemic models…

We propose a robust parameter estimation method for dynamical systems based on Statistical Learning techniques which aims to estimate a set of parameters that well fit the dynamics in order to obtain robust evidences about the qualitative…

The accurate prediction of patient prognosis is a critical challenge in clinical practice. With the availability of various patient information, physicians can optimize medical care by closely monitoring disease progression and therapy…

This paper focuses on the analysis of a stochastic SAIRS-type epidemic model that explicitly incorporates the roles of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals in disease transmission dynamics. Asymptomatic carriers, often…

The hazard function represents one of the main quantities of interest in the analysis of survival data. We propose a general approach for parametrically modelling the dynamics of the hazard function using systems of autonomous ordinary…

In this article, we consider a dynamic epidemiology model for the spread of the COVID-19 infection. Starting from the classical SEIR model, the model is modified so as to better describe characteristic features of the underlying pathogen…

Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…

This paper presents a detailed mathematical investigation into the dynamics of COVID-19 infections through extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological models. By…