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Social tipping points are promising levers to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets. They describe how social, political, economic or technological systems can move rapidly into a new state if cascading positive feedback…

Rare event sampling algorithms are essential for understanding processes that occur infrequently on the molecular scale, yet they are important for the long-time dynamics of complex molecular systems. One of these algorithms, transition…

Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…

动力系统 · 数学 2015-03-17 Christian Kuehn

The theory of alternative stable states and tipping points has garnered substantial attention in the last several decades. It predicts potential critical transitions from one ecosystem state to a completely different state under increasing…

斑图形成与孤子 · 物理学 2024-09-11 Swarnendu Banerjee , Mara Baudena , Paul Carter , Robbin Bastiaansen , Arjen Doelman , Max Rietkerk

Transition path sampling is a rare-event method that estimates state-to-state timecorrelation functions in many-body systems from samples of short trajectories. In this framework, it is proposed to bias the importance function using the…

化学物理 · 物理学 2015-03-13 Manuel Athènes , Mihai-Cosmin Marinica , Thomas Jourdan

Many processes in chemistry, physics, and biology involve rare events in which the system escapes from a metastable state by surmounting an activation barrier. Examples range from chemical reactions, protein folding, and nucleation events…

化学物理 · 物理学 2020-10-07 Niels Zijlstra , Daniel Nettels , Rohit Satija , Dmitrii E. Makarov , Benjamin Schuler

This paper investigates bifurcation phenomena and stability of most probable transition paths (MPTPs) in stochastic dynamical systems through a combined variational and spectral flow approach. Within the Onsager-Machlup framework, MPTPs are…

动力系统 · 数学 2025-08-13 Jinqiao Duan , Zhihao Zhao

In recent years, the discovery of complex dynamic systems in various fields through data-driven methods has attracted widespread attention. This method has played the role of data and has become an advantageous tool for us to study complex…

动力系统 · 数学 2020-12-02 Min Dai , Ting Gao , Yubin Lu , Yayun Zheng , Jinqiao Duan

Critical transitions or regime shifts are sudden and unexpected changes in the state of an ecosystem, that are usually associated with dangerous levels of environmental change. However, recent studies show that critical transitions can also…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2019-08-16 Anna Vanselow , Sebastian Wieczorek , Ulrike Feudel

Attribution of climate impacts to natural and anthropogenic source forcings is essential for understanding and addressing climate effects. While standard methods like optimal fingerprinting have been effective for long-term changes, they…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-07-25 Christopher R. Wentland , Michael Weylandt , Laura P. Swiler , Diana L. Bull

Atomistic simulations provide valuable insights into the physical processes governing material behavior. However, their applicability is fundamentally constrained by the limited time scales accessible to brute-force simulations. This…

计算物理 · 物理学 2026-02-16 Michael Kim , Wei Cai

In this article a stochastic cellular automata model is examined, which has been developed to study a "small" world, where local changes may noticeably alter global characteristics. This is applied to a climate model, where global…

元胞自动机与格子气 · 物理学 2011-03-24 Lichtenegger Klaus , Schappacher Wilhelm

A wide variety of physical systems ranging from the firing of neurons to eutrophication of lakes to the presence of Arctic summer sea ice exhibit a phenomenon known as tipping. In mathematical models, tipping can be caused by bifurcations,…

动力系统 · 数学 2018-03-14 Alanna Hoyer-Leitzel , Alice Nadeau , Andrew Roberts , Andrew Steyer

An analysis of the network defined by the potential energy minima of multi-atomic systems and their connectivity via reaction pathways that go through transition states allows to understand important characteristics like thermodynamic,…

材料科学 · 物理学 2016-08-03 Bastian Schaefer , Stefan Goedecker

Complex dynamical systems-such as climate, ecosystems, and economics-can undergo catastrophic and potentially irreversible regime changes, often triggered by environmental parameter drift and stochastic disturbances. These critical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-17 Xin Li , Qunxi Zhu , Chengli Zhao , Bolin Zhao , Xue Zhang , Xiaojun Duan , Wei Lin

Understanding the transition events between metastable states in complex systems is an important subject in the fields of computational physics, chemistry and biology. The transition pathway plays an important role in characterizing the…

计算物理 · 物理学 2024-04-10 Bo Lin , Yangzheng Zhong , Weiqing Ren

We introduce a path sampling method for obtaining statistical properties of an arbitrary stochastic dynamics. The method works by decomposing a trajectory in time, estimating the probability of satisfying a progress constraint, modifying…

统计力学 · 物理学 2015-06-04 Nicholas Guttenberg , Aaron R. Dinner , Jonathan Weare

Recent developments in automated tracking allow uninterrupted, high-resolution recording of animal trajectories, sometimes coupled with the identification of stereotyped changes of body pose or other behaviors of interest. Analysis and…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2018-07-04 Katarina Bodova , Gabriel J. Mitchell , Roy Harpaz , Elad Schneidman , Gasper Tkacik

This work is devoted to deriving the Onsager-Machlup action functional for a class of stochastic differential equations with (non-Gaussian) L\'{e}vy process as well as Brownian motion in high dimensions. This is achieved by applying the…

动力系统 · 数学 2024-06-19 Jianyu Hu , Jianyu Chen

Sudden transitions in the state of a system are often undesirable in natural and human-made systems. Such transitions under fast variation of system parameters are called rate-induced tipping. We experimentally demonstrate rate-induced…

应用物理 · 物理学 2022-09-15 Induja Pavithran , P. R. Midhun , R. I. Sujith