相关论文: A Data-Driven Approach for Discovering the Most Pr…

Rare events such as conformational changes in biomolecules, phase transitions, and chemical reactions are central to the behavior of many physical systems, yet they are extremely difficult to study computationally because unbiased…

Tipping points are abrupt, drastic, and often irreversible changes in the evolution of non-stationary and chaotic dynamical systems. For instance, increased greenhouse gas concentrations are predicted to lead to drastic decreases in low…

We present a data-driven point of view for rare events, which represent conformational transitions in biochemical reactions modeled by over-damped Langevin dynamics on manifolds in high dimensions. We first reinterpret the transition state…

There is growing interest in anticipating critical transitions in natural systems, often pursued through statistical detection of early warning signals associated with dynamical bifurcations. In stochastic dynamical systems, such signals…

In nonlinear dynamical systems, tipping refers to a critical transition from one steady state to another, typically catastrophic, steady state, often resulting from a saddle-node bifurcation. Recently, the machine-learning framework of…

Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…

In recent years, several climate subsystems have been identified that may undergo a relatively rapid transition compared to the changes in their forcing. Such transitions are rare events in general, and simulating long-enough trajectories…

We investigate the theoretical and numerical computation of rare transitions in simple geophysical turbulent models. We consider the barotropic quasi-geostrophic and two-dimensional Navier-Stokes equations in regimes where bistability…

Fluctuations play an important role in the dynamics of stochastic systems. In particular, for small systems, the most probable thermodynamic quantities differ from their averages because of the fluctuations. Using the Onsager Machlup…

Tipping points have been shown to be ubiquitous, both in models and empirically in a range of physical and biological systems. The question of how tipping points cascade through systems has been less well studied and is an important one. A…

We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2…

The maximum likelihood state for a simplified stochastic thermohaline circulation model is investigated. It is shown that a jump occurs for the maximum likelihood state during transitions between two metastable states. The jump helps to…

Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…

Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…

Chemical reactions can be modelled via diffusion processes conditioned to make a transition between specified molecular configurations representing the state of the system before and after the chemical reaction. In particular the model of…

It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…

Distribution-dependent stochastic dynamical systems arise widely in engineering and science. We consider a class of such systems which model the limit behaviors of interacting particles moving in a vector field with random fluctuations. We…

The Onsager--Machlup action functional is an important concept in statistical mechanics and thermodynamics to describe the probability of fluctuations in nonequilibrium systems. It provides a powerful tool for analyzing and predicting the…

Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) can be used to anticipate such transitions…

We study the impact of Brownian noise on transitions between metastable equilibrium states in a stochastic ice sheet model. Two methods to accomplish different objectives are employed. The maximal likely trajectory by maximizing the…