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Scientific imaging problems are often severely ill-posed, and hence have significant intrinsic uncertainty. Accurately quantifying the uncertainty in the solutions to such problems is therefore critical for the rigorous interpretation of…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-10-22 Julian Tachella , Marcelo Pereyra

This paper presents a new conformal method for generating simultaneous forecasting bands guaranteed to cover the entire path of a new random trajectory with sufficiently high probability. Prompted by the need for dependable uncertainty…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-16 Yanfei Zhou , Lars Lindemann , Matteo Sesia

A well-known result in random matrix theory, proven by Kahn, Koml\'os and Szemer\'edi in 1995, states that a square random matrix with i.i.d. uniform $\{\pm 1\}$ entries is invertible with probability $1-\exp(-\Omega(n))$. As a natural…

概率论 · 数学 2026-02-20 Yi Han

Confidence sets from i.i.d. data are constructed for the extrinsic mean of a probabilty measure P on spheres, real projective spaces, and complex projective spaces, as well as Grassmann manifolds, with the latter three embedded by the…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-02-15 Thomas Hotz , Florian Kelma

Quantile and quantile effect functions are important tools for descriptive and causal analyses due to their natural and intuitive interpretation. Existing inference methods for these functions do not apply to discrete random variables. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-03 Victor Chernozhukov , Iván Fernández-Val , Blaise Melly , Kaspar Wüthrich

In this paper, we study frequentist coverage errors of Bayesian credible sets for an approximately linear regression model with (moderately) high dimensional regressors, where the dimension of the regressors may increase with but is smaller…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-12-06 Keisuke Yano , Kengo Kato

A nonparametric procedure for robust regression estimation and for quantile regression is proposed which is completely data-driven and adapts locally to the regularity of the regression function. This is achieved by considering in each…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-04-06 Markus Reiss , Yves Rozenholc , Charles-Andre Cuenod

Load-sharing systems arise in many different reliability applications, for instance, when modeling tensile strength of fibrous composites in textile industry or lifetimes of redundant technical systems in engineering. Sequential order…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-01 Stefan Bedbur , Johann Köhne , Fabian Mies

In this paper we develop procedures to construct simultaneous confidence bands for $\tilde p$ potentially infinite-dimensional parameters after model selection for general moment condition models where $\tilde p$ is potentially much larger…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-02-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Denis Chetverikov , Ying Wei

A simple construction of adaptive confidence sets is proposed in isotonic, convex and unimodal regression. In univariate isotonic regression, the proposed confidence set enjoys uniform coverage over all non-decreasing regression functions.…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-04-10 Pierre C. Bellec

Statistical inference in high dimensional settings has recently attracted enormous attention within the literature. However, most published work focuses on the parametric linear regression problem. This paper considers an important…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-11-14 Qi Gao , Randy C. S. Lai , Thomas C. M. Lee , Yao Li

In observational studies, potential confounders may distort the causal relationship between an exposure and an outcome. However, under some conditions, a causal dose-response curve can be recovered using the G-computation formula. Most…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-12-18 Ted Westling , Peter Gilbert , Marco Carone

Conformal prediction methods create prediction bands with distribution-free guarantees but do not explicitly capture epistemic uncertainty, which can lead to overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions. Although recent conformal scores…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-06-11 Luben M. C. Cabezas , Vagner S. Santos , Thiago R. Ramos , Rafael Izbicki

The purpose of this paper is to propose methodologies for statistical inference of low-dimensional parameters with high-dimensional data. We focus on constructing confidence intervals for individual coefficients and linear combinations of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-11-05 Cun-Hui Zhang , Stephanie S. Zhang

We consider nonparametric regression in the context of functional data, that is, when a random sample of functions is observed on a fine grid. We obtain a functional asymptotic normality result allowing to build simultaneous confidence…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-03-13 David A. Degras

The practice of uncertainty quantification (UQ) validation, notably in machine learning for the physico-chemical sciences, rests on several graphical methods (scattering plots, calibration curves, reliability diagrams and confidence curves)…

化学物理 · 物理学 2023-03-31 Pascal Pernot

We study uncertainties in the equation of state of neutron stars using conformal prediction as a distribution-free and model-agnostic method that provides coverage guarantees. In particular, we apply the Conformalized Quantile Regression…

We develop a general assumption-lean framework for constructing uniformly valid confidence sets for functionals defined by moment equalities, referred to as $Z$-functionals. Our approach combines self-normalized statistics with a test…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-11 Woonyoung Chang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

In this paper we propose an autoregressive wild bootstrap method to construct confidence bands around a smooth deterministic trend. The bootstrap method is easy to implement and does not require any adjustments in the presence of missing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-12-12 Marina Friedrich , Stephan Smeekes , Jean-Pierre Urbain

We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-04-08 Timothy B. Armstrong , Michal Kolesár