相关论文: A Further Look at the Bayes Blind Spot

The Bayesian perspective on inverse problems has attracted much mathematical attention in recent years. Particular attention has been paid to Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) in which the parameter to be inferred lies in an…

We present a new class of prior measures in connection to $\ell_p$ regularization techniques when $p \in(0,1)$ which is based on the generalized Gamma distribution. We show that the resulting prior measure is heavy-tailed, non-convex and…

Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…

Inference from limited data requires a notion of measure on parameter space, most explicit in the Bayesian framework as a prior. Here we demonstrate that Jeffreys prior, the best-known uninformative choice, introduces enormous bias when…

In their seminal 1990 paper, Wasserman and Kadane establish an upper bound for the Bayes' posterior probability of a measurable set $A$, when the prior lies in a class of probability measures $\mathcal{P}$ and the likelihood is precise.…

Estimation of the population size $n$ from $k$ i.i.d.\ binomial observations with unknown success probability $p$ is relevant to a multitude of applications and has a long history. Without additional prior information this is a notoriously…

When performing Bayesian inference, we frequently need to work with conditional probability densities. For example, the posterior function is the conditional density of the parameters given the data. Some might worry that conditional…

The problem of forecasting conditional probabilities of the next event given the past is considered in a general probabilistic setting. Given an arbitrary (large, uncountable) set C of predictors, we would like to construct a single…

This is a paper that aims to interpret the cardinality of a set in terms of Baire Category, i.e. how many closed nowhere dense sets can be deleted from a set before the set itself becomes negligible. . To do this natural tree-theoretic…

We prove that if $G$ is a totally bounded abelian group \st\ its dual group $\widehat{G}_p$ equipped with the finite-open topology is a Baire group, then every compact subset of $G$ must be finite. This solves an open question by Chasco,…

The problem of sequential probability forecasting is considered in the most general setting: a model set C is given, and it is required to predict as well as possible if any of the measures (environments) in C is chosen to generate the…

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

We identify the critical deviation scale governing Bayesian evidence accumulation in regular parametric testing. Under integrated Bayes risk with zero-one loss, the risk-optimal rejection boundary lies in a moderate deviation regime, with a…

Loss-based updating, including generalized Bayes, Gibbs, and quasi-posteriors, replaces likelihoods by a user-chosen loss and produces a posterior-like distribution via exponential tilt. We give a decision-theoretic characterization that…

Convergence of the Bayes posterior measure is considered in canonical statistical settings where observations sit on a geometrical object such as a compact manifold, or more generally on a compact metric space verifying some conditions. A…

In this note we consider the stability of posterior measures occuring in Bayesian inference w.r.t. perturbations of the prior measure and the log-likelihood function. This extends the well-posedness analysis of Bayesian inverse problems. In…

The smooth development of large parts of mathematics hinges on the idea that some sets are `small' or `negligible' and can therefore be ignored for a given purpose. The perhaps most famous smallness notion, namely `measure zero', originated…

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

We consider the well-posedness of Bayesian inverse problems when the prior measure has exponential tails. In particular, we consider the class of convex (log-concave) probability measures which include the Gaussian and Besov measures as…