相关论文: Football Group Draw Probabilities and Corrections

This paper examines the joint problem of detection and identification of a sudden and unobservable change in the probability distribution function (pdf) of a sequence of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables to…

This article presents a holistic compound Poisson regression model framework to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and inherently arrive in batch…

The draw for the 2022 FIFA World Cup has been organised before the identity of three winners of the play-offs is revealed. Seeding has been based on the FIFA World Ranking released on 31 March 2022 but these three teams have been drawn from…

A team of association football players may be envisioned as a directed network with player nodes and weighted pass edges. Such a simplistic representation of an otherwise complex structure yields several benefits, but also permits the…

We study the Euler-Frobenius numbers, a generalization of the Eulerian numbers, and the probability distribution obtained by normalizing them. This distribution can be obtained by rounding a sum of independent uniform random variables; this…

We address a conjecture of Schilling concerning the optimality of the uniform distribution in the generalized Coupon Collector's Problem (CCP) where, in each round, a subset (package) of $s$ coupons is drawn from a total of $n$ distinct…

The analysis of data such as graphs has been gaining increasing attention in the past years. This is justified by the numerous applications in which they appear. Several methods are present to predict graphs, but much fewer to quantify the…

Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the not purely random, but highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the probability distributions of scored goals for…

Forecast of football outcomes in terms of Home Win, Draw and Away Win relies largely on ex ante probability elicitation of these events and ex post verification of them via computation of probability scoring rules (Brier, Ranked…

Models in which the number of goals scored by a team in a soccer match follow a Poisson distribution, or a closely related one, have been widely discussed. We here consider a soccer match as an experiment to assess which of two teams is…

This study analyzes pass networks in football (soccer) using a stochastic model known as the P\'olya urn. By focusing on preferential selection, it theoretically demonstrates that the time evolution of networks can be characterized by a…

Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams. It turns out…

An accumulator is a bet that presents a rather unique payout structure, in that it combines multiple bets into a wager that can generate a total payout given by the multiplication of the individual odds of its parts. These potentially…

This paper presents some useful mathematical results involved in football table prediction. In addition, some empirical results indicate that an alternative methodology for football table prediction may produce high quality forecasts with…

A random walk-like model is considered to discuss statistical aspects of tournaments. The model is applied to soccer leagues with emphasis on the scores. This competitive system was computationally simulated and the results are compared…

In this paper, we study collective interaction dynamics emerging in the game of football-soccer. To do so, we surveyed a database containing body-sensors traces measured during three professional football matches, where we observed…

This paper presents some first results on how to perform uniform random walks (where every trace has the same probability to occur) in very large models. The models considered here are described in a succinct way as a set of communicating…

Qualifications for several world championships in sports are organised such that distinct sets of teams play in their own tournament for a predetermined number of slots. Inspired by a recent work studying the problem with the tools from the…

We discuss the question of how to pick a matrix uniformly (in an appropriate sense) at random from groups big and small. We give algorithms in some cases, and indicate interesting problems in others.

In this work we study the ranking algorithm used by F\'ed\'eration Internationale de Football Association (FIFA); we analyze the parameters it currently uses, show the formal probabilistic model from which it can be derived, and optimize…