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Political scientists are increasingly interested in assessing causal mechanisms, or determining not just if a causal effect exists but also why it occurs. Even so, many researchers avoid formal causal mediation analyses due to their…

应用统计 · 统计学 2024-11-21 Matthew Blackwell , Ruofan Ma , Aleksei Opacic

This paper develops an empirical balancing approach for the estimation of treatment effects under two-sided noncompliance using a binary conditionally independent instrumental variable. The method weighs both treatment and outcome…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2020-07-10 Phillip Heiler

This paper concerns quantitative analysis of errors generated by incompletely known data in convex minimization problems. The problems are discussed in the mixed setting and the duality gap is used as the fundamental error measure. The…

数值分析 · 数学 2015-06-17 Olli Mali

Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-19 Tobias Brock , Thomas Nagler

Unmeasured confounding and selection bias are often of concern in observational studies and may invalidate a causal analysis if not appropriately accounted for. Under outcome-dependent sampling, a latent factor that has causal effects on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-03 Kendrick Qijun Li , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

Estimating causal effects from observational data is a central problem in many domains. A general approach is to balance covariates with weights such that the distribution of the data mimics randomization. We present generalized balancing…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-10-02 Yoshiaki Kitazawa

This paper considers the evaluation of discretely distributed treatments when outcomes are only observed for a subpopulation due to sample selection or outcome attrition. For identification, we combine a selection-on-observables assumption…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2021-07-16 Michela Bia , Martin Huber , Lukáš Lafférs

The bias of an estimator is defined as the difference of its expected value from the parameter to be estimated, where the expectation is with respect to the model. Loosely speaking, small bias reflects the desire that if an experiment is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-16 Ioannis Kosmidis

Most inverse optimization models impute unspecified parameters of an objective function to make an observed solution optimal for a given optimization problem with a fixed feasible set. We propose two approaches to impute unspecified…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2019-07-19 Timothy C. Y. Chan , Neal Kaw

When teaching and discussing statistical assumptions, our focus is oftentimes placed on how to test and address potential violations rather than the effects of violating assumptions on the estimates produced by our statistical models. The…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-14 Ian A Silver

The classical binary hypothesis testing problem is revisited. We notice that when one of the hypotheses is composite, there is an inherent difficulty in defining an optimality criterion that is both informative and well-justified. For…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-03-29 Michael Bell , Yuval Kochman

A solution to control for nonresponse bias consists of multiplying the design weights of respondents by the inverse of estimated response probabilities to compensate for the nonrespondents. Maximum likelihood and calibration are two…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-10-27 Caren Hasler

This paper demonstrates a practical method for computing the solution of an expectation-constrained robust maximization problem with immediate applications to model-free no-arbitrage bounds and super-replication values for many financial…

数理金融 · 定量金融 2016-10-06 Christopher W. Miller

This paper focuses on investigating an inexact stochastic model-based optimization algorithm that integrates preconditioning techniques for solving stochastic composite optimization problems. The proposed framework unifies and extends the…

最优化与控制 · 数学 2025-12-12 Chenglong Bao , Yancheng Yuan , Shulan Zhu

The basic disentanglement theorem established by the present authors states that estimates on a weighted geometric mean over (convex) families of functions can be disentangled into quantitatively linked estimates on each family separately.…

泛函分析 · 数学 2023-07-06 Anthony Carbery , Timo S. Hänninen , Stefán Ingi Valdimarsson

Many major works in social science employ matching to make causal conclusions, but different matches on the same data may produce different treatment effect estimates, even when they achieve similar balance or minimize the same loss…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-03-23 Marco Morucci , Cynthia Rudin

We study prediction and estimation problems using empirical risk minimization, relative to a general convex loss function. We obtain sharp error rates even when concentration is false or is very restricted, for example, in heavy-tailed…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-10-14 Shahar Mendelson

In this paper, we propose a novel method for matrix completion under general non-uniform missing structures. By controlling an upper bound of a novel balancing error, we construct weights that can actively adjust for the non-uniformity in…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-06-11 Jiayi Wang , Raymond K. W. Wong , Xiaojun Mao , Kwun Chuen Gary Chan

Matching on covariates is a well-established framework for estimating causal effects in observational studies. The principal challenge stems from the often high-dimensional structure of the problem. Many methods have been introduced to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-12 Florian Gunsilius , Yuliang Xu

In the context of multicriteria decision making, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) functions play a crucial role in aggregating multiple criteria evaluations into an overall assessment supporting the decision makers' choice. Determining…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2018-04-19 Thuy Hong Nguyen