相关论文: The Yield Curve as a Recession Leading Indicator. …

Machine learning (ML) for transient stability assessment has gained traction due to the significant increase in computational requirements as renewables connect to power systems. To achieve a high degree of accuracy; black-box ML models are…

In fixed income sector, the yield curve is probably the most observed indicator by the market for trading and fifinancing purposes. A yield curve plots interest rates across different contract maturities from short end to as long as 30…

We introduce a novel application of Support Vector Machines (SVM), an important Machine Learning algorithm, to determine the beginning and end of recessions in real time. Nowcasting, "forecasting" a condition about the present time because…

Options, serving as a crucial financial instrument, are used by investors to manage and mitigate their investment risks within the securities market. Precisely predicting the present price of an option enables investors to make informed and…

In this three-part series of papers, we argue that the conventional spread measures are not well defined for credit-risky bonds and introduce a set of credit term structures which correct for the biases associated with the strippable cash…

Viewing a yield curve as a sparse collection of measurements on a latent continuous random function allows us to model it statistically as a sparsely observed functional time series. Doing so, we use the state-of-the-art methods in…

We propose a new Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects alternative exclusion restrictions over time and, as a condition for the search,…

Score-based explainable machine-learning techniques are often used to understand the logic behind black-box models. However, such explanation techniques are often computationally expensive, which limits their application in time-critical…

The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term affine yield curves modeling. It is inspired by the Ramsey rule of the economic literature, that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate optimal consumption. For such…

A well-established insight in mortality forecasting is that combining predictions from a set of models improves accuracy compared to relying on a single best model. This paper proposes a novel ensemble approach based on Shapley values, a…

When using machine learning techniques in decision-making processes, the interpretability of the models is important. In the present paper, we adopted the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP), which is based on fair profit allocation among…

US Yield curve has recently collapsed to its most flattened level since subprime crisis and is close to the inversion. This fact has gathered attention of investors around the world and revived the discussion of proper modeling and…

Using a state-space system, I forecasted the US Treasury yields by employing frequentist and Bayesian methods after first decomposing the yields of varying maturities into its unobserved term structure factors. Then, I exploited the…

Predicting fund performance is beneficial to both investors and fund managers, and yet is a challenging task. In this paper, we have tested whether deep learning models can predict fund performance more accurately than traditional…

We explore the statistical and economic importance of restrictions on the dynamics of risk compensation from the perspective of a real-time Bayesian learner who predicts bond excess returns using dynamic term structure models (DTSMs). The…

The use of cumulative incidence functions for characterizing the risk of one type of event in the presence of others has become increasingly popular over the past decade. The problems of modeling, estimation and inference have been treated…

This study revisits regression for samples with alternating predictors (SWAP) proposed in Chow et al.[2015] with the purpose of finding the best fit model when the role of the response and the explanatory variables was established. In the…

This study focuses on the problem of credit default prediction, builds a modeling framework based on machine learning, and conducts comparative experiments on a variety of mainstream classification algorithms. Through preprocessing, feature…

We study the impacts of business cycles on machine learning (ML) predictions. Using the S&P 500 index, we find that ML models perform worse during most recessions, and the inclusion of recession history or the risk-free rate does not…

Feature attribution methods such as SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) have become instrumental in understanding machine learning models, but their role in guiding model optimization remains underexplored. In this paper, we propose a…