相关论文: The Yield Curve as a Recession Leading Indicator. …

Derivative traders are usually required to scan through hundreds, even thousands of possible trades on a daily basis. Up to now, not a single solution is available to aid in their job. Hence, this work aims to develop a trading…

Accurate prediction of loan defaults is a central challenge in credit risk management, particularly in modern financial datasets characterised by nonlinear relationships, class imbalance, and evolving borrower behaviour. Traditional…

In the analysis of commodity futures, it is commonly assumed that futures prices are driven by two latent factors: short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium price levels. In this study, we extend this framework by introducing a…

Analysis of sample survey data often requires adjustments to account for missing data in the outcome variables of principal interest. Standard adjustment methods based on item imputation or on propensity weighting factors rely heavily on…

The purpose of this paper relies on the study of long term yield curves modeling. Inspired by the economic litterature, it provides a financial interpretation of the Ramsey rule that links discount rate and marginal utility of aggregate…

We build a 167-indicator comprehensive credit risk indicator set, integrating macro, corporate financial, bond-specific indicators, and for the first time, 30 large-scale corporate non-financial indicators. We use seven machine learning…

The term structure of credit spreads is studied with an aim to predict its future movements. A completely new approach to tackle this problem is presented, which utilizes nonlinear parametric models. The Brain-Cousens regression model with…

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the…

A large class of trading strategies focus on opportunities offered by the yield curve. In particular, a set of yield curve trading strategies are based on the view that the yield curve mean-reverts. Based on these strategies' positive…

Understanding predictions made by Machine Learning models is critical in many applications. In this work, we investigate the performance of two methods for explaining tree-based models- Tree Interpreter (TI) and SHapley Additive…

We apply SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis using the TreeSHAP algorithm to a Random Forest model (RANDM) designed to predict thermospheric neutral density based on solar-terrestrial data. The analysis shows that RANDM identifies…

Under a high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we propose a way of efficiently estimating both the stationary graph structure between the nodal time series and their temporal dynamics. The framework is then used to make…

The film industry is characterized by significant financial uncertainty, where large production investments do not always guarantee commercial success. This study analyzes the relationship between release season, production budget, and…

We propose Group Shapley, a metric that extends the classical individual-level Shapley value framework to evaluate the importance of feature groups, addressing the structured nature of predictors commonly found in business and economic…

Decision trees are well-known due to their ease of interpretability. To improve accuracy, we need to grow deep trees or ensembles of trees. These are hard to interpret, offsetting their original benefits. Shapley values have recently become…

The forecasting of the credit default risk has been an important research field for several decades. Traditionally, logistic regression has been widely recognized as a solution due to its accuracy and interpretability. As a recent trend,…

Adaptation level and animal spirits (Middleton 1996) presented a psychophysical theory of confidence levels based on the oldest and probably most widely observed law in psychology, the sensitivity to adaptation level. For Americans, whose…

This research presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing liquidity in financial markets, particularly in the context of high-frequency trading. By leveraging advanced machine learning classification techniques, including Logistic…

Yield curve forecasting is an important problem in finance. In this work we explore the use of Gaussian Processes in conjunction with a dynamic modeling strategy, much like the Kalman Filter, to model the yield curve. Gaussian Processes…

Stock price prediction is influenced by a variety of factors, including technical indicators, which makes Feature selection crucial for identifying the most relevant predictors. This study examines the impact of feature selection on stock…