相关论文: From $p$-Values to Posterior Probabilities of Hypo…

P-values are a mainstay in statistics but are often misinterpreted. We propose a new interpretation of p-value as a meaningful plausibility, where this is to be interpreted formally within the inferential model framework. We show that, for…

In science, the most widespread statistical quantities are perhaps $p$-values. A typical advice is to reject the null hypothesis $H_0$ if the corresponding p-value is sufficiently small (usually smaller than 0.05). Many criticisms regarding…

We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian risk bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization risk bounds…

Several scientific fields including psychology are undergoing a replication crisis. There are many reasons for this problem, one of which is a misuse of p-values. There are several alternatives to p-values, and in this paper we describe a…

We propose a dimension reduction technique for Bayesian inverse problems with nonlinear forward operators, non-Gaussian priors, and non-Gaussian observation noise. The likelihood function is approximated by a ridge function, i.e., a map…

We propose an easily computed estimator of marginal likelihoods from posterior simulation output, via reciprocal importance sampling, combining earlier proposals of DiCiccio et al (1997) and Robert and Wraith (2009). This involves only the…

We extend to the general codimension a lower bound for the essential minimum on abelian varieties found in a previous work, under a conjecture about ordinary primes in abelian varieties. This lower bound is the best expected, ``up to an…

Although Bayesian inference is an immensely popular paradigm among a large segment of scientists including statisticians, most applications consider objective priors and need critical investigations (Efron, 2013, Science). While it has…

Variational inference is a popular technique to approximate a possibly intractable Bayesian posterior with a more tractable one. Recently, boosting variational inference has been proposed as a new paradigm to approximate the posterior by a…

We discuss systematically two versions of confidence regions: those based on p-values and those based on e-values, a recent alternative to p-values. Both versions can be applied to multiple hypothesis testing, and in this paper we are…

In this article, we derive concentration inequalities for the cross-validation estimate of the generalization error for subagged estimators, both for classification and regressor. General loss functions and class of predictors with both…

Probability forecasts for binary events play a central role in many applications. Their quality is commonly assessed with proper scoring rules, which assign forecasts a numerical score such that a correct forecast achieves a minimal…

The logical and practical difficulties associated with research interpretation using P values and null hypothesis significance testing have been extensively documented. This paper describes an alternative, likelihood-based approach to…

In Generalised Bayesian Inference (GBI), the learning rate and hyperparameters of the loss must be estimated. These inference-hyperparameters can't be estimated jointly with the other parameters, from the data, by giving them a prior.…

There has been strong recent interest in testing interval null hypothesis for improved scientific inference. For example, Lakens et al (2018) and Lakens and Harms (2017) use this approach to study if there is a pre-specified meaningful…

This paper introduces a feasible and practical Bayesian method for unit root testing in financial time series. We propose a convenient approximation of the Bayes factor in terms of the Bayesian Information Criterion as a straightforward and…

Estimating the effective sample size (ESS) of a prior distribution is an age-old yet pivotal challenge, with great implications for clinical trials and various biomedical applications. Although numerous endeavors have been dedicated to this…

Statistical inference can be seen as information processing involving input information and output information that updates belief about some unknown parameters. We consider the Bayesian framework for making inferences about dynamical…

In the sparse normal means model, convergence of the Bayesian posterior distribution associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…

We explain the concept of p-values presupposing only rudimentary probability theory. We also use the occasion to introduce the notion of p-function, so that p-values are values of a p-function. The explanation is restricted to the discrete…