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Given empirical evidence for the dependence of an outcome variable on an exposure variable, we can typically only provide bounds for the "probability of causation" in the case of an individual who has developed the outcome after being…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-04-28 A. P. Dawid , R. Murtas , M. Musio

An individual has been subjected to some exposure and has developed some outcome. Using data on similar individuals, we wish to evaluate, for this case, the probability that the outcome was in fact caused by the exposure. Even with the best…

统计理论 · 数学 2017-06-16 Rossella Murtas , Alexander Philip Dawid , Monica Musio

In experimental and observational data settings, researchers often have limited knowledge of the reasons for missing outcomes. To address this uncertainty, we propose bounds on causal effects for missing outcomes, accommodating the scenario…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-19 Max Rubinstein , Denis Agniel , Larry Han , Marcela Horvitz-Lennon , Sharon-Lise Normand

In many applications, researchers are interested in the direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest. Mediation analysis offers a rigorous framework for identifying and estimating these causal…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-10-08 Yizhen Xu , Numair Sani , AmirEmad Ghassami , Ilya Shpitser

The presence of intermediate confounders, also called recanting witnesses, is a fundamental challenge to the investigation of causal mechanisms in mediation analysis, preventing the identification of natural path-specific effects. Proposed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-10 Tat-Thang Vo , Nicholas Williams , Richard Liu , Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Dıaz

Bounding causal effects analytically, rather than numerically, is appealing for its interpretability and conceptual clarity. Existing sharp methods rely on optimization-based approaches such as the Balke-Pearl framework, whose computational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-15 Arefe Boushehrian , Mohammad Reza Badri , Sina Akbari , Negar Kiyavash

Mediation analysis is concerned with the decomposition of the total effect of an exposure on an outcome into the indirect effect through a given mediator, and the remaining direct effect. This is ideally done using longitudinal measurements…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-12-04 Murthy N Mittinty , Stijn Vansteelandt

Mediation analysis allows one to use observational data to estimate the importance of each potential mediating pathway involved in the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. However, current approaches to mediation analysis with…

Decomposing an exposure effect on an outcome into separate natural indirect effects through multiple mediators requires strict assumptions, such as correctly postulating the causal structure of the mediators, and no unmeasured confounding…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-02-04 Wen Wei Loh , Beatrijs Moerkerke , Tom Loeys , Stijn Vansteelandt

Causal mediation analysis provides techniques for defining and estimating effects that may be endowed with mechanistic interpretations. With many scientific investigations seeking to address mechanistic questions, causal direct and indirect…

Instrumental variables have proven useful, in particular within the social sciences and economics, for making inference about the causal effect of a random variable, B, on another random variable, C, in the presence of unobserved…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-06-26 Roland R. Ramsahai

Decomposing a total causal effect into natural direct and indirect effects is central to revealing causal mechanisms. Conventional methods achieve the decomposition by specifying an outcome model as a linear function of the treatment, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-05 Guanglei Hong

A causal query will commonly not be identifiable from observed data, in which case no estimator of the query can be contrived without further assumptions or measured variables, regardless of the amount or precision of the measurements of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-09 Michael C Sachs , Gustav Jonzon , Arvid Sjölander , Erin E Gabriel

In cluster-randomized trials (CRTs), there is emerging interest in exploring the causal mechanism in which a cluster-level treatment affects the outcome through an intermediate outcome. The majority of existing causal mediation methods are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-12 Chao Cheng , Fan Li

Causal decomposition has provided a powerful tool to analyze health disparity problems, by assessing the proportion of disparity caused by each mediator. However, most of these methods lack \emph{policy implications}, as they fail to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-21 Xinwei Sun , Xiangyu Zheng , Jim Weinstein

We present a method for assessing the sensitivity of the true causal effect to unmeasured confounding. The method requires the analyst to set two intuitive parameters. Otherwise, the method is assumption-free. The method returns an interval…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-02-07 Jose M. Peña

For sensitivity analysis against unmeasured confounding, we build on the marginal sensitivity model (MSM) and propose a new model, deMSM, by incorporating a second constraint on the shift of potential outcome distributions caused by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-21 Yi Zhang , Wenfu Xu , Zhiqiang Tan

Given a binary treatment D and a binary mediator M, mediation analysis decomposes the total effect of D on an outcome Y into the direct and indirect effects. Typically, both D and M are assumed to be exogenous, but this paper allows M to be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-09 Bora Kim , Myoung-jae Lee

Although the exposure can be randomly assigned in studies of mediation effects, any form of direct intervention on the mediator is often infeasible. As a result, unmeasured mediator-outcome confounding can seldom be ruled out. We propose…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-30 BaoLuo Sun , Ting Ye

Natural direct and indirect effects are mediational estimands that decompose the average treatment effect and describe how outcomes would be affected by contrasting levels of a treatment through changes induced in mediator values (in the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-10 Kara E. Rudolph , Ivan Diaz