相关论文: Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious di…

Bayesian inference methods are useful in infectious diseases modeling due to their capability to propagate uncertainty, manage sparse data, incorporate latent structures, and address high-dimensional parameter spaces. However, parameter…

The emergence and spread of deadly pandemics has repeatedly occurred throughout history, causing widespread infections and loss of life. The rapid spread of pandemics have made governments across the world adopt a range of actions,…

We study epidemic arrival times in meta-population disease models through the lens of front propagation into unstable states. We demonstrate that several features of invasion fronts in the PDE context are also relevant to the network case.…

Dengue, a mosquito-borne disease, continues to pose a persistent public health challenge in urban areas, particularly in tropical regions such as Singapore. Effective and affordable control requires anticipating where transmission risks are…

Care deferral is the phenomenon where patients defer or are unable to receive healthcare services, such as seeing doctors, medications or planned surgery. Care deferral can be the result of patient decisions, service availability, service…

The objective of this study was to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic and social-ecological risk factors associated with the largest dengue epidemic to date in Machala, Ecuador, to inform the development of a dengue EWS.…

Dengue is a life threatening disease prevalent in several developed as well as developing countries like India.In this paper we discuss various algorithm approaches of data mining that have been utilized for dengue disease prediction. Data…

In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…

The aviation industry has experienced constant growth in air traffic since the deregulation of the U.S. airline industry in 1978. As a result, flight delays have become a major concern for airlines and passengers, leading to significant…

Climate has been an important factor in shaping the distribution and incidence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries. In Costa Rica, a tropical country with distinctive micro-climates, dengue has been endemic since its…

The COVID-19 pandemic has shed light on how the spread of infectious diseases worldwide are importantly shaped by both human mobility networks and socio-economic factors. Few studies, however, have examined the interaction of mobility…

Unpredictable sensor-to-estimator delays fundamentally distort what matters for wireless remote state estimation: not just freshness, but how delay interacts with sensor informativeness and energy efficiency. In this paper, we present a…

Early outbreak detection is a key aspect in the containment of infectious diseases, as it enables the identification and isolation of infected individuals before the disease can spread to a larger population. Instead of detecting unexpected…

A pressing question resulting from global warming is how infectious diseases will be affected by climate change. Answering this question requires research into the effects of weather on the population dynamics of transmission and infection;…

We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of…

Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…

In the face of an infectious disease, a key epidemiological measure is the basic reproduction number, which quantifies the average secondary infections caused by a single case in a susceptible population. In practice, the effective…

Mathematical models of epidemiological systems enable investigation of and predictions about potential disease outbreaks. However, commonly used models are often highly simplified representations of incredibly complex systems. Because of…

Identifiability is the property in mathematical modelling that determines if model parameters can be uniquely estimated from data. For infectious disease models, failure to ensure identifiability can lead to misleading parameter estimates…

We consider real-time timely tracking of infection status (e.g., covid-19) of individuals in a population. In this work, a health care provider wants to detect infected people as well as people who have recovered from the disease as quickly…