相关论文: Bivariate collocation for computing $R_{0}$ in epi…
The basic reproduction number, $R_0$, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating $R_0$ from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation of this quantity. In…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
A stochastic epidemic model is defined in which each individual belongs to a household, a secondary grouping (typically school or workplace) and also the community as a whole. Moreover, infectious contacts take place in these three settings…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
In this manuscript we consider an age structured epidemic system modelling the dynamics of transmission of immunizing disease like Hepatitis B virus. Our model takes into account age as well as two classes of infected individuals (chronic…
In the present paper, our goal is to establish a framework for the mathematical modelling and the analysis of the spread of an epidemic in a large population commuting regularly, typically along a time-periodic pattern, as is roughly…
In the study of disease spreading on empirical complex networks in SIR model, initially infected nodes can be ranked according to some measure of their epidemic impact. The highest ranked nodes, also referred to as "superspreaders", are…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
We study contact epidemic models for the spread of infective diseases in finite populations. The size dependence enters in the infection rate. The dynamics of such models is then analyzed within the deterministic approximation, as well as…
Mathematical modeling is one of the key factors of the effective control of newly found infectious diseases, such as COVID-19. Our knowledge about the parameters and the course of the infection is highly limited in the beginning of the…
Waning immunity and reinfection are critical features of many infectious diseases, but epidemiological models often fail to capture the intricate interaction between an individual's history of immunity and their current infection status;…
This paper considers a deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) networked bivirus epidemic model (termed the bivirus model for short), in which two competing viruses spread through a set of populations (nodes) connected by two…
We present a novel methodology for integrating high resolution longitudinal data with the dynamic prediction capabilities of survival models. The aim is two-fold: to improve the predictive power while maintaining interpretability of the…
Epidemic spreading often occurs in spatially heterogeneous environments, yet how quenched heterogeneity reshapes its onset and critical dynamics remains poorly understood. The diffusive epidemic process, a minimal reaction-diffusion model…
Simple models of infectious diseases tend to assume random mixing of individuals, but real interactions are not random pairwise encounters: they occur within various types of gatherings such as workplaces, households, schools, and concerts,…
We numerically address the stability analysis of linear age-structured population models with nonlocal diffusion, which arise naturally in describing dynamics of infectious diseases. Compared to Laplace diffusion, models with nonlocal…
The main aim to build models capable of simulating the spreading of infectious diseases is to control them. And along this way, the key to find the optimal strategy for disease control is to obtain a large number of simulations of disease…
In epidemiological modelings, the spectral radius of the next generation matrix evaluated at the trivial equilibrium was considered as the basic reproduction number. Also, the global stability of the trivial equilibrium point was determined…
The epidemic threshold is probably the most studied quantity in the modelling of epidemics on networks. For a large class of networks and dynamics the epidemic threshold is well studied and understood. However, it is less so for clustered…