相关论文: Bivariate collocation for computing $R_{0}$ in epi…
Understanding how age-specific social contact patterns and susceptibility influence infectious disease transmission is crucial for accurate epidemic modeling. This study presents an eigenvector-based sensitivity analysis framework to…
This article introduces epidemia, an R package for Bayesian, regression-oriented modeling of infectious diseases. The implemented models define a likelihood for all observed data while also explicitly modeling transmission dynamics: an…
We study the qualitative properties of a spatial diffusive heterogeneous SIR model, that appears in mathematical epidemiology to describe the spread of an infectious disease in a population. The model we consider consists in a system of…
A new age-structured diffusive model for the mathematical modelling of epidemics is suggested. The model can be considered as a generalization of two models suggested earlier for the same purposes. The Lie symmetry classification of the…
Recently developed techniques to acquire high-quality human mobility data allow large-scale simulations of the spread of infectious diseases with high spatial and temporal resolution.Analysis of such data has revealed the oversimplification…
A novel predictive modeling framework for the spread of infectious diseases using high dimensional partial differential equations is developed and implemented. A scalar function representing the infected population is defined on a…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
The spectral properties of the adjacency matrix, in particular its largest eigenvalue and the associated principal eigenvector, dominate many structural and dynamical properties of complex networks. Here we focus on the localization…
In this work we propose a novel space-dependent multiscale model for the spread of infectious diseases in a two-dimensional spatial context on realistic geographical scenarios. The model couples a system of kinetic transport equations…
Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…
Most epidemic models are spatially aggregate and the index which is most used for planning and policy numbers, the r number, typically refers to a single system of interest. Even if r numbers are calculated for each of adjacent areas,…
The asymptotic stability of the null equilibrium of a linear population model with two physiological structures formulated as a first-order hyperbolic PDE is determined by the spectrum of its infinitesimal generator. We propose an…
We propose an epidemic model for the spread of vector-borne diseases. The model, which is built extending the classical susceptible-infected-susceptible model, accounts for two populations -- humans and vectors -- and for cross-contagion…
In this paper, an epidemic model with spatial dependence is studied and results regarding its stability and numerical approximation are presented. We consider a generalization of the original Kermack and McKendrick model in which the size…
We study a simple model of epidemics where an infected node transmits the infection to its neighbors independently with probability $p$. This is also known as the independent cascade or Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model with fixed…
A key parameter in models for the spread of infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number $R_0$, which is the expected number of secondary cases a typical infected primary case infects during its infectious period in a large mostly…
In this paper, we introduce a general numerical method to approximate the reproduction numbers of a large class of multi-group, age-structured, population models with a finite age span. To provide complete flexibility in the definition of…
In this paper, we provide a straightforward approach to defining and deriving the key epidemiological quantity, the basic reproduction number, $R_0$, for Markovian epidemics in structured populations. The methodology derived is applicable…
Compartmental models have long served as important tools in mathematical epidemiology, with their usefulness highlighted by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. However, most of the classical models fail to account for certain features of this…
The study of infectious disease propagation is essential for understanding and controlling epidemics. One of the most useful tools for gaining insights into the spread of infectious diseases is mathematical modelling. In terms of…